Gravity Shift: Thinking about China and India in 2030

Wendy Dobson’s ‘Gravity Shift’ is a very good start to what will likely become a genre in the coming years, China, India and the rest of us. Students of these countries, and their potential impact on the rest of the world, would do well to start with this book. First, Dobson avoids the usual throat clearing about the importance of these economies by focusing right away on the key determining role of domestic institutions in helping to explain how inefficient and ineffectual economies have become powerhouses. There is a nice moment when she reminds us in the case of China how a number of upheavals between 1949 and 1975 although tremendously disruptive for China had absolutely no impact on the rest of world. This was a clever way to underline how vital China in particular and India to a lesser extent are now very important to the rest of the world, and likely to grow in importance. Second, the focus on institutional change as a springboard to new economic status nicely sets up the conversation about how important cross border institution building could be for these economies, and the rest of us. In this context, thinking about ‘deeper integration’ makes more sense, and thinking about a China-India free trade agreement by 2030 roots Dobson’s analysis in a real framework. She starts to provide a roadmap for the next two decades.

There is an important blind spot in this book however and that is the risk that unresolved territorial issues, ancient quarrels, and the simple fact that as neighbours these countries – like so many rapidly growing neighbours in other places in the world in other centuries – may clash over resources, Asian influence and other great power flash points. The recent troubles over Arunachal Pradesh is a case in point, as is India’s concern about China’s ‘string of pearls,’ Beijing’s strategy of increasing its geopolitical influence by improving access to ports and airfields and developing special diplomatic relationships from the South China Sea through the Strait of Malacca, across the Indian Ocean, and on to the Persian Gulf. Also I think that the author could have provided a table listing and categorizing the key institutions of both countries. I remember when I was doing research in Japan in the 1980s on post-1945 Japanese economic policy making that books published decades before that provided these kinds of lists were very helpful. Given that students will likely be referring to this book for years to come this maybe something the author could add in a second edition.