Canadians Are Not Fully Embracing Asia’s Rise

Author(s): David Emerson, Joseph P. Caron

Published: April 14, 2011  

Op-Ed

Two centuries ago, the largest economies in the world were those of China and India. The Japanese economy alone was larger than that of the United States. Absent foresight of what was to become the 19th century's "Rise of the West," anyone planning for the future would have woefully, if understandably, in error.

During these first decades of the 21st century, we cannot risk a similar lack of vision. That's why each of the parties in the current election campaign need to put the rise of Asia on the radar screens of Canadians, and to devise a comprehensive strategy that prepares the country for a more Asia-centric century.

Throughout the 20th century, Canada demonstrated great capacity for adapting to transformation beyond our borders. We managed the transition from British-led global engagement to independence, world citizenship and responsibility. We adapted to the vast changes arising from the replacement of Pax Britannica by Pax Americana without sacrificing our values.

It is both our fate and, potentially, our good fortune to have before us yet another era of fundamental transition.

To point to "The Rise of Asia" is not news. It started 50 years ago with the post-war recovery of Japan; moved forward with the growth and impact of the Tiger - Korea, Taiwan, South East Asia; then, China, already the second economy in the world; and now, India, with comparable growth rates.

What is even more remarkable is the accelerating rate of transformation: 27 per cent of the global GDP is generated in Asia, compared to 20 per cent two decades ago. The G- 20, a good idea whose time had not come as recently as five years ago, has now replaced the G-8 as global economic talk-shop-in-chief. Six of the 20 ␣ China, India, Japan, Indonesia, South Korea and Australia ␣ are Asia Pacific countries. We have learned that no progress can be expected on everything from climate change to poverty alleviation to UN reform without the explicit OK and engagement of the major Asian powers.

Despite best intentions, Canada remains on the fringes of this remarkable transformation, whether diplomatic engagement, trade, foreign investment, or educational or cultural exchanges. We risk being left behind.

Uncharacteristically, Canadians appear worried about a future in which Asia will play a much larger part. According to the National Opinion Poll on Canadians' Views on Asia released today by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, Canadians are not fully embracing the rise of Asia.

While respondents held a generally positive view of most countries, only 12 per cent viewed India and nine per cent China favorably. In fact, the poll results suggest that a growing number of Canadians perceive Asia's growing power as a threat more than an opportunity.

While two thirds of Canadians believe that China will surpass the United States in size and power within a decade, Canadians are increasingly worried about everything from differences in values to the role of foreign direct investment flowing from the region to Canada. According to the poll, the majority do not believe that China's economic growth is tied to Canadian prosperity.

This view is not in accord with reality. In fact, our trade relations with China alone surpass those with the entire European Union. The most rapidly rising investment flows into Canada come from China and India. And every year, a huge percentage of Canada's new human resources - and future brain power -are welcomed to Canada from Asia. The internationalization of our university students and future leaders is taking place, today, thanks to the fact that a rapidly increasing percentage of foreign students in Canada come to us from across the Pacific.

Seventy five billion dollars from now, possibly this year, China will replace Canada as the number one trading partner of the United States, with all that that implies regarding US trade policies and priorities.

All this needs to be on the minds and in the platforms of the party leaders as they criss- cross the country in the run-up to the May 2 election.

This piece was first published in the Globe and Mail on April 14, 2011.

Joseph P. Caron is Strategic Advisor for HB Global, and former ambassador to China and Japan, and High Commissioner to India. He is the co-chair of the Futures Group on Asia, part of the National Conversation on Asia of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada

Hon. David L. Emerson, P.C. is a Corporate Director, Public Policy Advisor and serves as a senior advisor to CAI Manager, a private equity fund. He is the former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of International Trade with responsibility for the Asia Pacific Gateway initiative and the 2010 Vancouver Olympics and Minister of Industry. He is the co-chair of the Futures Group on Asia, part of the National Conversation on Asia of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.