Myanmar

Myanmar At the Cusp of Change? Post-Election Update

Author(s): Bruce Matthews

Published: November 18, 2010  

Op-Ed

World attention has been focused on Myanmar. The shadowy Southeast Asian country has recently seen two momentous events: the 7 November elections and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s release after a seven-year house arrest. Though the election results were a foregone conclusion, there is arguably still a small opening for civilian participation in a national assembly. With the release of Daw Suu Kyi, revered by many as the champion of human and civil rights, and as the true but disenfranchised leader of the country since 1990, her vision for the future of the nation presents fresh opportunities for political contestation.

Of course, it would be easy to exaggerate the importance that the country’s first elections in twenty years and Suu Kyi’s release mark. Optimism about the possibilities of ‘change’ should be tempered by taking into consideration the historical record of the country since the military take- over of Burma in 1962. And yet Myanmar has moved closer to addressing its problems in a more open manner.

It should come as no surprise that the elections had many irregularities. The Union Solidarity and Development Party, a proxy for the military, already claims victory in 80% of the polls. There is no news yet about who will be the President or the Commander-in-Chief, two key positions in the loosely attached executive, the eleven-person National Security and Defense Council.

With the refusal of Daw Suu Kyi or her National League for Democracy to participate, a modicum of democratic process was found only among the handful of seats contested by three small parties. Some claim that the elections provided a way for Senior General Than Shwe to keep disgruntled officers off-guard. Some have even suggested that the elections are part of a plan to slowly ease the junta out of its half-century control of the polity. The elections further allow the government to promote a PRC-model of centralized political control presiding over a ‘liberalized’ economy. Liberalization of the economy has involved a substantial sell-off of state resources to crony civilian partners of the junta.

Upon her release on November 13, Daw Suu Kyi made an initial appearance at her residence gate and the next day went to her former National League for Democracy headquarters to meet a crowd of thousands (although the party was officially dissolved in May 2010). Her hour-long speech was marked by exhortations to maintain unity, hold on to what is right, to not give up hope, and to “be ready to stand up for what you believe in.” Photographs and videos reveal that she retains a powerful charisma.

Given her rough experiences with the junta in 2000 and 2003, when she actively sought a political role, she may now be extremely cautious bringing together the forces of democracy. As an unelected figure, her role may be more Gandhian than overtly political or confrontational. Some aver that because Daw Suu Kyi has been out of contact with every-day folk and the big economic changes that have taken place in Myanmar during her house arrest - which she fully acknowledges - she will have to be less unyielding. She will also face a new generation of hard- line generals, many who would not favour her touring the country to promote alternative forms of government. Given the relatively successful manner in which the junta managed to bring forward a new constitution and parliamentary elections, Indian writer Sagari Chhabra even asks: “has Suu Kyi been rendered unnecessary in the new scheme of things?” (Hindustan Times 12 November, 2010). Nonetheless, the ‘new’ government of Myanmar will have to adjust to Daw Suu Kyi’s influential public persona. She has indicated that she bears no grudge against the government for years of confinement.

Daw Suu Kyi will be expected to respond to several major challenges including, first and foremost, her relationship with both Parliament and the National Security and Development Council. Moreover, she will face issues related to the release of political prisoners, the challenges of outreach to deeply mistrustful ethnic minority communities, and clarifying her role among the democracy groups that have emerged during her latest seven-year house arrest.

Daw Suu Kyi’s role in helping to ease economic sanctions by marshaling her persuasive international reputation is an issue that will have important internal and international ramifications. Western countries have primarily relied on sanctions to register their discontent with political tyranny in Myanmar, though critics claim the strategy has even further isolated the regime and left it open to China’s hegemonic advantage. Daw Suu Kyi alone has the international credentials to persuade sanction-imposing countries to eliminate these penalties, making her a valuable asset to the government. She may already have made offers to the junta to help lift the restrictions, which she now sees are deeply unpopular with the majority of ordinary citizens. She has intimated that if the demise of sanctions is the public will, she will take that into consideration.

Although the decision to lift international sanctions will likely depend on more than just the release of Daw Suu Kyi, arguably such actions by countries like Canada, the US and UK would hugely assist the millions of Burmese whose livelihoods have been at best, compromised and at worst, ruined by blanket sanction application. Canadians and others who live in democratic countries will want to watch developments in Myanmar carefully, and continue to seek ways to reach out to those who work for freedom in a country so long deprived of responsible government and meaningful progress.

Bruce Matthews is Professor Emeritus of Comparative Religion from Acadia University. This op-ed is a follow-up his Canada-Asia Agenda, Issue 13, entitled ‘A Nation at Cross-Roads: Myanmar’s 2010 National Election.’