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Politico - Canada Playbook, July 11, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Ahead of Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand's meeting in Malaysia with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Nadjibulla notes that the newly appointed foreign minister will be focused on building on Carney’s June 5 telephone call with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. 

 “What China wants – and we’ve seen this in their discussion with Australia – is co-operation on AI, co-operation on technology. There are serious national security and economic security concerns.”

China’s state-driven trading and security posture, especially around technology has been a long standing concern for the U.S. – one that Canada shares. She adds that "China is not an alternative [trading partner] when it comes to those critical sectors."

Trump’s message to trade partners: Trim ties with China

The Globe and Mail, July 10, 2025

Featuring: President & CEO, APF Canada, Jeff Nankivell

Excerpt: When it comes to which nations will actually get on board with the latest U.S. push to isolate China, Nankivell notes that "for some countries, like Canada, the calculus will be obvious." 

“If concessions related to China are able to head off concessions in other directly bilateral areas, then that may be the lesser of two evils from a Canadian point of view, in a situation where there are no good choices." 

On the other hand, the decision may be harder for other Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines, which had long standing trade and investment ties to Beijing. “If they do have to make a hard choice, the China trade relationship is worth more to them economically than the U.S. trade relationship," said Nankivell.

Canada turns to Asia as efforts to shift trade from United States expand

The Globe and Mail, July 8, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: In light of Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand's visit to Japan this week, Nadjibulla notes that Canada and Japan are likely to sign a Security of Information Agreement to address transfer of defence technology, a move to also divest from the U.S.

But she notes that  Canada can’t shift trade away from the United States without also investing in trade relations with Asian economies. “It’s not enough just for us to look for partners in Europe... there is no diversification or reduction of overreliance on the United States market without the big Asian markets.”

Anand visiting Malaysia, Japan as Carney crafts approach to Indo-Pacific strategy

The Canadian Press,  July 7, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Senior Fellow, Kai Oswald

Excerpt: Taking a look at Canada's relationship building strategy with the Indo-Pacific region, The Canadian Press cite Kai Oswald's contribution to APF Canada's May 2025 Strategic Reflection: The Indo-Pacific Imperative for Canada’s New Government. His essay, titled "From Momentum to Meaning: Canada’s Strategic Opening in Southeast Asia," notes that Canada is building partnerships in Southeast Asia through prime prime ministerial visits and  trade delegations

"Even if Canada cannot offer clarity on the path ahead, many in the region want it at the table as an interlocutor and sounding board while they navigate the turbulence."

Is Pakistan pulling an end-run around India in Washington with its cryptocurrency hype?

The Telegraph Online (India),  July 7, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Senior Fellow, Michael Kugelman

Excerpt: "Pakistan’s crypto push has already opened up many doors in Washington. Consider that until Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief, the only known visiting senior Pakistani official to get a White House meeting during Trump’s second term was Saqib. He met one of Trump’s top crypto officials.”

U.S. Carrier a Show of Strength for Manilla

South China Morning Post, July 5, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Nadjibulla notes that the USS George Washington aircraft carriers docking in Manilla signal's the US's commitment to the Indo-Pacific region despite ongoing tensions in Europe and the Middle East. 

"Beijing will view the port call as further evidence of US containment ands justification for China's stepped-up naval activity, including 'grey-zone' tactics designed to pressure US regional allies."

Can Asian countries replace the U.S. as B.C.’s largest trading partner?

Vancouver City News, July 3, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: While BC Premier David Eby's comments that his government's recent trade mission to Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea strengthen trade partnerships and create new opportunities for Canadians in the region, Nadjibulla contends that "success would mean concrete deals, not just MOUs (Memorandum of Understanding)."

She adds that “while such visits are critical to open doors, long-term success requires follow-through mechanisms and a focus on Asia that is sustained.”

Why Google Maps Can’t Guide You Through Seoul

The Diplomat, July 3, 2025

Featuring: Research Scholar, Northeast Asia, APF Canada, Tae Yoon Eom

Excerpt: “Every day hundreds of visitors step off the AREX train at Seoul Station, tap Google Maps, and discover that the blue-dot app they use everywhere from Berlin to Bangkok will not provide walking or driving directions in South Korea. Few realize that the country – alongside China, Iran, Syria, and only a handful of others – bars foreign companies from exporting centimeter-level mapping data.

...That blind spot sits at the center of a policy battle now in its third round. Google petitioned Seoul in 2007 and 2016 for permission to copy 1:5,000-scale digital maps to its offshore servers; regulators said no both times. In June of this year, Apple filed its own request... South Korea’s “map export panel” must deliver a verdict by August. Whether it loosens, tightens, or again postpones the ban will reverberate through national security planning, the domestic tech ecosystem, tourism earnings, and South Korea-U.S. trade diplomacy."

US ending all trade negotiations with Canada over digital tax: Trump

Al Jazeera, June 27, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: “This is definitely escalation from Trump,” says Nadjibulla in reference to President Trump announcing that his administration will end trade talks with Canada. “But we have seen this tactic before. Canada will need to work behind the scenes to find an off-ramp without giving in to his demands."

“Digital tax is also part of Trump’s negotiations with the European Union [which has similar levies]. Canada will need to coordinate with the EU and other partners as it contemplates its response.”

What It Means to Build Local AI

Featuring: APF Canada Distinguished Fellow, Elina Noor

Excerpt: "Following OpenAI’s public launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the underpinnings of AI large language models seemed firmly “WIRED”: Western, industrialized, rich, educated, and democratic. Everyone assumed that if LLMs spoke a particular language and reflected a particular worldview, it would be a Western one. OpenAI even acknowledged ChatGPT’s skew toward Western views and the English language." 

Iran-Israel conflict a tough balancing act for India

The Federal,  June 18, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Senior Fellow, Michael Kugelman

Excerpt: "What happened in the last 12 hours is really remarkable. Trump has found himself in a situation he had always wanted to avoid—being pulled into another country's war. He was elected on a platform that emphasised avoiding foreign entanglements and so-called "forever wars."

But this is not the scenario he likely envisioned. He probably thought about China invading Taiwan or something similar. Here, one of America’s closest allies, Israel, initiated a conflict, putting him in a tight spot. I had assumed Trump would try his usual pressure tactics to push Iran toward negotiation, but that clearly didn’t work."

 

The Thai government is hanging by a thread

La Presse, June 21, 2025

Featuring: Advisor Research & Communications (Quebec), APF Canada, Alexandre Veilleux 

Excerpt: In the private phone call with Cambodian President Hun Sen, Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra made critical remarks about the Thai military —unaware that the conversation was being recorded.

 "There's no doubt she'll struggle to stay in power," comments Veilleux. He further questions the political survival of the Prime Minister and points to the possibility of early elections or a military coup, noting that while Thailand and Cambodia "have formed a coalition, but they are hitting each other at every opportunity." 

Thawing of relations between Pakistan and US raises eyebrows in India

The Guardian,  June 18, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Senior Fellow, Michael Kugelman

Excerpt: Kugelman comments on the unusual progression in U.S.-Pakistani relations after Donald Trump welcomes Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, to DC. 

"Senior US officials often meet with Pakistani generals. But they don’t get entertained at the White House...Ayub Khan and Zia ul-Haq were exceptions but they came as heads of state.”

False Flags, Real Risks: How Nationalism Drives South Asia’s Nuclear Gamble — with Michael Kugelman

Modern Diplomacy,  June 18, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Senior Fellow, Michael Kugelman

Excerpt: Looking at the regional and security dynamics of Southeast Asia, Kugelman notes that "this is a region where you have many countries that simply struggle to get along, not just India and Pakistan... and there are so many borders that are fraught and disputed... it continues to be concerning now.

"...Until the recent India-Pakistan conflict, the LOC (the line of control) [in Kashmir] was arguably one of the more stable borders in the region in the sense that there was a truce that had been in place for years."

Modi-Carney meeting raises hopes of reset in India-Canada ties

Hindustan Times, June 18, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Nadjibulla notes that the meeting between Carney and Modi is a good signal from the two leaders towards the reseting of the two country's relationship and possible deepening cooperation as both look to diversify away from the U.S.

She said the meeting and its outcome represented a significant moment, setting the stage for follow-up action at the level of officials and ministers at the G6 in September. 

PM Modi In Canada For G7 Summit: 6th Appearance, Global 'Sandesh' In Focus| Newshour

Times Now, June 17, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: "The road for rebuilding this relationship, for rebuilding trust, will be a long one." 

Looking ahead to the G6 meeting in September, Nadjibulla notes that the time between then and this meeting will be critical in signalling if the Canada-India relationship is on the mend. 

"Canada and India need to revive law enforcement cooperation... it would be important to see justice and accountability" from India regarding the concerns Canada has put forward, but also for "Canada to take India's national security concerns" seriously. 

Carney to Hold Bilateral Talks with Modi

CTV News, June 17, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: "The relationship matters not just for Canada thats trying to diversify it's partnerships in Europe and Asia... but it also matters for Prime Minister Modi... Canada has a lot of the things [India] wants: energy, technology products, and investments.

"There will be a number of things we are watching for, but one meeting cannot erase deep grievances on both sides... so this will be a long road in rebuilding the relationship." 

G7 summit: World leaders meet in Alberta for final day | Power & Politics

CBC News - Power & Politics, June 17, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: "Both leaders framed the meeting in terms of multilateral significant of each other... we need each other to be able to reduce over reliance on the U.S.. we need each other to make our Indo-Pacific strategies a success and deal with challenges emanating in China and ultimately for people-to-people ties

This will be not an easy situation... but this is a great start for re-building a relationship that has been on ice for too long." 

‘It will take time’: Vina Nadjibulla on Canada-India relations ahead of Carney’s meeting with Modi

The Hub (Hub Hits Podcast) June 17, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: "For there to be an opportunity for a diplomatic reset, we need to see some movement on these critical national security issues" between Canada and India. 

When looking at the issue of Khalistani separatist movements in Canada, Nadjibulla notes that these protests and actions are strongly protected under Canadian law, but that India hopes to see "signals" that these issues will not be taken up by  "Canadian political leadership" such as showing that "we take issues of violent extremism, of terrorism, of other national security concerns that India is raising. It is going to take time. There is not a lot of trust [and]... it goes back to the Air India bombing" in the 80's.

Inside Trump & Carney's G7 Meeting

CTV News,  June 17, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Distinguished Fellow, Yves Tiberghien

Excerpt: "There is this problem that Donald Trump loves tariffs, and he's very attached to it," but Tiberghien notes that PM Carney, in a bilateral meeting with Trump on the margins of the G7 Summit, has presented a deal for negotiation to remove tariffs on Canadian imports that "includes raising defence spending in Canada." 

"Eventually, the deal, from what we hear, may still involve some tariffs.... it looks like the U.S. is trying to keep [a] 10% [tariff] with everybody... because they want revenue... so the big deal for Canada is 'can we do better than the 10%?'"