Introduction
The Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada invites proposals from qualified consultants or contractors to produce an original, policy-grade research report examining the long-term demand outlook for Canadian crude oil in the Indo-Pacific region. The report will provide a set of 10-to-15-year demand forecast scenarios, identify existing and prospective refinery buyers and crude usages, assess the infrastructure and regulatory conditions that will shape Canada's ability to serve Asian markets, and deliver clear, evidence-based policy recommendations for federal and provincial governments and private sector stakeholders.
ACCESS THE FULL REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS (RFP) DOCUMENT HERE
Project Description and Objectives
The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline came online in May 2024, tripling export capacity to 890,000 barrels per day and opening a structural route from Alberta's oil sands to Pacific Basin markets. Since startup, Canadian crude exports to Indo-Pacific markets have grown from near zero to over C$571 million per month on average.
At the same time, the November 2025 Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding has committed both governments to the construction of a new northwest pipeline targeting one million barrels per day of capacity to a deepwater port on the B.C. coast — a project whose viability depends on regulatory approvals, Indigenous consent, and sustained Asian demand.
Despite this infrastructure momentum, a rigorous, independent assessment of where Indo-Pacific demand for Canadian heavy sour crude will stand over the 10-to-15-year horizon is absent from the policy literature. Asian refinery configurations, the pace of the energy transition, competitive crude supply dynamics, and geopolitical risks - including the demonstrated vulnerability of Strait of Hormuz supply routes - and concomitant risk mitigation opportunities with Canada, all shape the commercial and strategic case for investment. This report will provide that assessment.
The research project will pursue the following objectives:
- Assess the long-term demand outlook for Canadian heavy sour crude in key Indo-Pacific markets, with a primary focus on China and secondary analysis of India, Japan, South Korea, and select Southeast Asian economies.
- Evaluate the technical and commercial fit between Canadian oil and specifically identified Asian refinery configurations, including coking capacity constraints and the petrochemicals pivot.
- Analyze the infrastructure landscape — existing and proposed — that will determine Canada's ability to supply Asian buyers at scale.
- Examine the competitive supply environment, including Venezuelan, Russian, and Middle Eastern crude, and assess Canada's positioning relative to these alternatives.
- Assess the geopolitical risk and mitigation environment and its implications for the Canadian energy-as-alternative thesis, including but not only, the demonstrated impact of Strait of Hormuz disruption scenarios.
- Deliver scenario-based demand projections across a minimum of three plausible futures, with explicit assumptions and supporting quantitative derivations.
- Include key data points and quotes from expert interviewees, including industry executives, academic experts and, if possible, Asian government officials.
Submission Information
Please access the full RFP document above and submit your bid no later than May 2, 2026, to:
IMPORTANT NOTE: Please click here submit your bid in ONE MERGED FILE
For any questions, please email project lead Barrett Bingley, Asia Regional Director, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada (Singapore) at singapore@asiapacific.ca
