In the News

China Problems Persist Despite Trump Trade Truce

Global Finance, October 30, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Nadjibulla pointed out that the U.S. tariffs on China were being framed in Beijing as the chief culprit for its economic slowdown—but she noted the Asia country's troubles go beyond tariff wars.

“The reality is that China’s slowdown is overwhelmingly driven by domestic, structural issues: a prolonged property bust that’s sapping household wealth and confidence, weak consumption, local-government debt, and private-sector caution after years of regulatory churn—problems that predate the latest tariff rounds."

Carney to meet with Xi as he seeks to offset damage from U.S. tariffs

The Globe and Mail, October 30, 2025

Featuring: President & CEO, APF Canada, Jeff Nankivell

Excerpt: Jeff Nankivell, a former Canadian diplomat and current President & CEO of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, says Ottawa’s shift on both China and India under Mr. Carney has been rapid. “It’s a fairly quick progression of events after a fairly long period of deep freeze.”

"The Xi meeting will cap a week of Mr. Carney pitching Asian leaders on Canada as an 'energy superpower,' from natural gas to small modular nuclear reactors, including meetings with Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore and South Korea, among others, and pressing to expedite a trade deal with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations."

Mark Carney Tackles Trump Tariff Feud by Mending Ties With Asia

Bloomberg, October 30, 2025

Featuring: President & CEO, APF Canada, Jeff Nankivell

Excerpt: "'The speed of the changes [in U.S. tariff policy] is very striking,' said Jeff Nankivell, head of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, a government-backed, arm’s-length group that recently opened an office in Singapore. He was previously a senior diplomat for Canada in China and Hong Kong.

"While almost every country is trying to diversify its export markets to counter U.S. tariffs, it’s 'an existential issue for Canadians,' Nankivell said.

"Among residents, concern over Trump’s policies is so strong that more Canadians currently see the U.S. as an “enemy or potential threat” than they do China or India, according to a recent poll from the Angus Reid Institute produced in partnership with APF Canada.

What’s at stake for Friday’s meeting between Carney and China’s Xi?

CTV News, October 30, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Negotiations on trade deals with China, according to Nadjibulla, need to be strategic and take "into account [Canada's] long-term ambitions in terms of our economy and our industrial strategy."

She emphasized the risk of pitting auto workers and farmers against each other in a tariff battle, but maintains U.S. negotiations on auto tariffs need to take priority.

“The future of our auto sector has to be decided here in Canada and in conversations with the U.S. And then after that, we have to see what we can do with China on EVs...It shouldn’t just be a decision that we make because we’re under pressure from China.”

Intra-regional trade emerges as key driver amid US tariffs

Global China Daily, October 29, 2025

Featuring: Distinguished Fellow, APF Canada, Bart Édes

Excerpt: "Bart Edes, distinguished fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said APEC economies are intensifying efforts to spread risk by diversifying trade away from overdependence on the US.

"He pointed out that Canada — a close neighbour and one of the biggest trading partners of the U.S. — is overcoming the challenges brought by the U.S. tariffs by strengthening trade relations with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, through a proposed Canada-ASEAN free trade agreement.

" 'Emerging markets are leveraging high-standard trade blocs and supply-chain shifts to maintain resilience amid global trade tensions,' said Edes."

As Carney meets Xi, what cards does Canada have to play against China? | Power & Politics

CBC News - Power & Politics, October 29, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Nadjibulla tells CBC's Power & Politics that Carney is likely aiming to "recalibrate the relationship with China" during his meeting this week with President Xi. "He essentially wants to say that Canada wants to have a relationship [with China] that allows us to advance some of our interests, particularly around trade and commercial interests."

"President Xi is coming into this meeting very confident... he feels that he is winning the trade war... and because of what everything the U.S. is doing the momentum is behind China."

"Not only is it difficult to negotiate with China on any day, but in this particular context we don't have a lot of cards. Yes, we want to improve the relationship, but we have to be cautious at the same time and have really modest expectations on what is possible in the short term."

She also notes that the underlying trend in the U.S.-China relationship is that "they are moving further apart."

In Asia, Canada hopes to fill a Trump-sized void | Front Burner

CBC News - Front Burner Daily Podcast, October 29, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: On PM Mark Carney's trip to Asia, Nadjibulla notes that Carney is aiming to "position Canada as a reliable, serious partner that is interested in doing business with Asian partners and that values inclusive trade as well as sustainable development, and is committed to rules-based trade that puts Canada in a different category than the big powers like the U.S. and China." 

Canada has "been talking about diversification for thirty years," she adds. "But I think now it's not just a 'nice to have' but 'a must have' if Canada is to continue to be a prosperous, secure country."

Canada in Search of Submarines (And New Friends)

La Presse, October 28, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada 2025-26 Media Fellow, Laura-Julie Perreault.

Excerpt: "Mark Carney is spending the week in Asia, where... he's tasked with strengthening relations with several countries in the region. He's eagerly awaited in South Korea, where the military industry and government are prepared to do anything (or almost anything) to woo Canada."

In Geoje, South Korea, Perreault reports from the Hanwha Ocean shipyard where "a brand-new submarine awaits visitors...So new, you can almost smell the champagne that was sprayed on the hull the day before our arrival, as it was launched."

In Seoul and Gwacheon, Perreault backdrops the nation's military industry at the ADEX exhibition, highlighting "defence and aerospace companies from around the world...but it is the South Korean companies that steal the show with their enormous, large-scale booths."

CBC News Network's Aarti Pole speaks with Vina Nadjibulla of the Asia Pacific Foundation

CBC News, October 28, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: "Asia will be critical to [Canada's] diversification efforts both in terms of trade investment, but also in terms of strategic partners in this changing world," says Nadjibulla. "Diversification is a long-term game... we need Asia to invest in Canada."

"In the short term we have to stabilize relations with the U.S. because that uncertainty unfortunately also makes it harder for us to get Asian [economies] and others to invest in Canada... but at the same time we have to continue to build new relationships with important countries in Asia." 

She adds that Canada needs to invest in "trade enabling infrastructure" to support these partnerships. 

India seeks B.C. trade reset as tension cools

Business in Vancouver, October 28, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Both export and import volumes between B.C. and India have fallen since Trudeau's accusations against the India government in 2023 – the total trade volume dropped from a peak of $2.5 billion in 2022 to $2.23 billion in 2023 and $2.15 billion in 2024, according to the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

“One of the reasons the overall trade numbers for Canada and India didn't go down is because some provinces really maintained relations, even when the Ottawa-New Delhi relationship was more challenged,” explained Nadjibulla.

“Now that it is clear that the relationship between Ottawa and New Delhi is improving, this also opens up opportunity for B.C. to re-engage more fully at the level of our senior officials."

Carney looks for allies in Asia as U.S. trade war escalates

CBC News: The National, October 27, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Amidst ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., Nadjibulla urges Canada not to ignore Asia. 

The Southeast Asia region "collectively represents about 667 million people. It's a large opportunity because they have a growing middle class [and] a growing economy."

CBC's Marianne Dimain speaks with Tricia Yeoh on Trump, Carney, and tensions at the ASEAN summit

CBC News, October 27, 2025

Featuring: Senior Fellow, APF Canada, Tricia Yeoh

Excerpt: "Southeast Asia... puts forward a new potential strategic partnership for Canada at a time when Canada is seeking new partnerships and allies across the world.

Canada will also need to do more to show that it is more than just a trading partner, that it is also interested in the priorities and objectives of ASEAN as a region."

When it comes to the upcoming ASEAN summit, Yeoh notes that "ultimately ASEAN stands to gain from [the U.S. and China] not being in total war on the tariff front" and emphasizes an optimistic approach to bilateral negotiations on the Summit's sidelines.

Canada's economic prosperity will be tied to Indo-Pacific trade, explains foreign policy expert

CPAC, October 27, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla 

Excerpt: "To be able to get [Canadian] products into the global market, we need a lot more infrastructure at home," says Nadjibulla. Canadians "need to do a lot more now to make [these trade deals] a reality because right now only about 10 per cent of Canada's trade is with Asia."

"Now it seems like the urgency is there, the opportunities are there, but we do have to be realistic... there is an opportunity in this crisis to finally get serious about diversifying our partnerships... and one piece of that is we need to have Asia competence."

Why is Canada so interested in ASEAN?

ICI Radio-Canada, October 26, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla 

Excerpt: "There is complementarity between the Southeast Asian and Canadian economies, [says] Vina Nadjibulla, VP, Research and Strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

"They have a growing middle class, a growing economy, and many needs in terms of energy, food, investment, infrastructure and technological support...[ASEAN countries] are trying not to get caught between the United States and China, two giants now engaged in strategic competition. Canada is also trying to avoid getting caught in this battle."

Carney pitches Canada to ASEAN as Trump threatens more tariffs

CBC News, October 26, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla 

Excerpt: In response to the additional 10 per cent tariff placed on Canada over the weekend by U.S. President Donald Trump, Nadjibulla says Canada must "be able to do multiple things at once; stabilizing trade discussions with the U.S. is job number one, but equally important is to diversify our trading relationships... including in Asia, and of course the final job is to strengthen our economy at home." 

She adds that PM Carney's meetings over the weekend with members of ASEAN are critical for finalizing the Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. "Prime Minister Carney essentially wants to see that deal finalized as early as possible next year." The PM was able to "raise Canada's profile [in the region], to position Canada as a leader that is interested in continuing rules-based trade and... economic integration." 

PM Pitches Canada as Trade Partner for Southeast Asia

CTV News, October 26, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla 

Excerpt: Nadjibulla tells CTV during an on-air interview that Canada's outreach to the Asia Pacific for trade partnerships is "absolutely critical . . . it would be impossible for Canada to meet the target of doubling our non-U.S. exports without deeper partnerships in Southeast Asia and Asia more generally."

She adds that these partnerships are also vital for securing critical infrastructure needed to maintain and expand trading relations like "ports and railways, and for that we need a lot of new capital."

Carney to pitch Canada as reliable partner in Asia

Carney faces historic choice between South Korea and Europe for submarine fleet

Globe and Mail, October 25, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla 

Excerpt: 

"Former prime minister Jean Chrétien once nixed a helicopter deal and Justin Trudeau originally opposed buying the F-35 fighter jet, but Mr. Carney’s very hands-on approach reflects “the reality that security and the economy are now inseparable,” said Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. 

“Major procurements have become strategic industrial policy, alliance management, and national-security decisions all at once – appropriate for leader-level engagement in an era of great-power competition and supply-chain geopolitics."

Canada’s Indo-Pacific Pivot: Strategic Signals and Bilateral Motion

The Swing by Pendulum Group, October 24, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla 

Episode Notes: 

This week Yaroslav Baran is joined by two luminaries of foreign policy and trade with a particular expertise in the Asia-Pacific region: Vina Najibulla is Vice-President, Research & Strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada and Jonathan Berkshire Miller is Co-Founder & Principal at Pendulum Geopolitical Advisory.

Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand has just completed a whirlwind tour of China, Singapore, and India—three countries chosen with clear intent. This marks the Carney government’s first major diplomatic engagement in Asia, signaling a strategic re-entry into a region that’s central to Canada’s long-term economic and geopolitical interests.

So what is Canada trying to achieve? And is it working?

Three key messages emerged from this tour . . . [listen for more].

Mark Carney Turns Attention to Asia as Trump Terminates Trade Negotiations

Newsweek, October 24, 2025 

Featuring: Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada, Vina Nadjibulla 

Excerpt: Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada: “While the world economy is fragmenting, Carney needs to make it clear that Canada stands apart and is still interested in rules-based trade and globalization.”