Political developments in Bangladesh are unfolding at a pace and in a manner that, until recently, would have been unthinkable. They began in early July when students organized a series of protests to oppose a job quota system they said was based on political favouritism. In the weeks that followed, the protests grew in such scope and intensity that by Monday, August 5, they had claimed at least 300 lives and prompted the resignation of Sheikh Hasina, a prime minister who once seemed indomitable.
• See our recent Explainer for a full description of what fuelled the protest movement.
On Tuesday, the army stepped in to try to contain the chaos that had overtaken parts of the capital of Dhaka, and President Muhammed Shabuddin, who holds a ceremonial role, dissolved parliament. Meanwhile, a hastily assembled coalition – business leaders, student leaders, politicians, civil society activists, and military personnel – have rushed to fill the vacuum left in the wake of Hasina’s hasty departure to neighbouring India.
On Wednesday, Muhammad Yunus, who won a Nobel prize for his work in microfinancing, announced that he will head an interim government. At the time of the announcement, Yunus was in Paris attending the Olympic Games – an indication of how unplanned and improvisational the first few days of the post-Hasina period have been.
Questions Loom Large about Political, Economic Stability
The most immediate question confronting Bangladesh is how quickly it can restore stability and law and order in the South Asian country of 171 million. That will be especially challenging after the police union declared a strike on Tuesday. Although the union apologized for its role in the violence, it is not clear that protesters will be satisfied; they could continue to demand accountability for the hundreds killed in the crackdown, further undermining public trust in the police.
Another question is how Hasina’s ruling party, the Awami League, will re-group after its image was tarnished by its blunt-force response to the protests. It is equally uncertain whether the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), could return the country to stability and economic growth. When the BNP last held power, from 2001 to 2006, it was beset by accusations of dysfunction and corruption.
Both the interim government and whatever replaces it will have to act quickly to assuage the concerns of the international community. That includes the IMF, which committed to a US$4.7-billion bailout after the COVID-19 pandemic dealt a heavy blow to Bangladesh’s economy, including the ready-made-garment sector, which accounts for 83 per cent of the country’s export earnings. That sector – and the economy as a whole – is struggling to regain its footing after the recent crisis brought production and exports to a near standstill.
• Read APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla in this Al Jazeera piece by Megha Bahree on the unprecedented nature of recent events in Bangladesh and what comes next.
Foreign governments expressed a mixture of concern and hope this week. Canada “strongly condemn[ed]” the recent “human rights violations, deaths, torture, arbitrary unrest and lethal force” and urged “all parties to respect and uphold democratic institutions and processes and the rule of law.”
India, Bangladesh’s most steadfast ally, reiterated that “India-Bangladesh relations have been exceptionally close for many decades” and “over many governments.” However, after granting Hasina passage to New Delhi after her flight from Dhaka, India may find establishing relations with Bangladesh’s new interim government challenging in the short term.
• For more on the international implications of the crisis in Bangladesh, see our new Explainer.
