What began as an aside by Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae during a House of Representatives Budget Committee session has spiralled into a full-blown bilateral spat, with Beijing launching daily broadsides over what it calls Takaichi’s “blatantly provocative” conduct.
Takaichi, now barely a month into her tenure, said on November 7 that if China blockaded Taiwan, Japan would likely mobilize troops to defend itself. Her remark didn’t represent a change in Japanese defence policy; she simply “said the quiet part out loud,” according to one expert.
Outrage ensued: Beijing sent coast-guard vessels to contested waters, counselled Chinese tourists and students to avoid Japan — a coercive tactic previously used on Canada — called on Takaichi to issue a formal retraction, and even postponed the release of two Japanese movies in China.
Japanese voters, however, are rallying around the flag, pushing the approval rating for Takaichi’s cabinet to nearly 70 per cent (and, in the process, making a formal retraction increasingly unlikely).
If China chooses to escalate further, it may limit Japan’s access to critical minerals — Beijing currently supplies 60 per cent of Japan’s rare earths. However, such a move would likely draw the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump, who, three weeks ago, hailed a critical-minerals deal with China as “a massive victory.”
