Canadian defence minister Bill Blair departs for Japan today following a four-day trip to South Korea, a dual diplomatic tour designed to strengthen ties with two of Canada’s closest Indo-Pacific allies.
In South Korea, Blair met with his new South Korean counterpart, Kim Yong-Hyun, addressed the Seoul Defense Dialogue, and participated in the ‘Responsible AI in the Military Domain’ summit, where he discussed the Canadian military’s newly released AI strategy.
That strategy report acknowledges that “AI initiatives within DND/CAF are fragmented,” but that “leveraging AI is central to the priorities of [Ottawa], its allies, and its adversaries.”
The minister also visited the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), where, days earlier, the latest barrage of North Korean trash balloons floated overhead. Blair received a tour of the DMZ by Canadian Lt.-Gen. Derek Macaulay, deputy commander of the United Nations Command in South Korea. Later, at Seoul Air Base, Blair met with deputy minister Sung Il from South Korea’s defence ministry.
Blair flies to Japan today, where he’ll meet with Kihara Minoru, the country’s defence minister. This is Blair’s first trip to both countries as defence minister and his second trip to the Indo-Pacific.
At an APF Canada event on August 8, Blair acknowledged that “the world has become a more dangerous and challenging and uncertain place,” but affirmed that Indo-Pacific security is “absolutely critical” to Canada’s prosperity and peace.
In 2023, Japan was Canada’s third-largest merchandise-export market — after the U.S. and China — while South Korea was the seventh largest. Ottawa has doubled down on trade and investment relations with both countries, focusing on critical minerals, electric vehicles, and energy security.
The ‘axis of upheaval’?
At the Seoul Defense Dialogue, Blair registered his concerns about North Korea’s “aggressive actions,” including Pyongyang’s ballistic missile program and its drift towards Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded a June trip to North Korea by reviving a Cold War defence agreement. Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un also agreed to “immediately provide military assistance” to the other in the event of an attack.
The U.S. State Department estimates that North Korea sent more than 11,000 shipping containers of munitions to Russia from September 2023 to June 2024 to support Russia's war against Ukraine.
Tactical bouts of co-operation between China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran have been described by some analysts as an emerging ‘axis of upheaval,’ a somewhat opportunistic bloc bound together by “anti-Western" beliefs and behaviours.
Japan’s PM in waiting
Blair visits Japan as the country patiently awaits a new prime minister. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will select a new leader on September 27 in the wake of Kishida Fumio’s decision to step down; the winner of the crowded leadership race will become the country's next prime minister.
A snap election is very likely, as Japan’s main opposition party is also reckoning with a leadership race of its own this month.
At least nine candidates are gunning for the LDP presidency, including three current cabinet ministers and the party’s secretary general.
Polls suggest 43-year-old Koizumi Shinjiro, a former environment minister and son of prime minister Koizumi Junichiro (2001-06), is a leading candidate.
