China, Philippines Clash in South China Sea as U.S. and India Back Manila

The Sierra Madre, a rusting World War II-era vessel, is again at the heart of renewed tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.

On March 23, a Philippine resupply ship sailing to replenish troops aboard the Sierra Madre — an 80-year-old vessel grounded by the Philippines in 1999 on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal — was encircled by two Chinese coast guard vessels. The Chinese vessels blasted water cannons at the Philippine resupply ship, shattering its windows and injuring three sailors.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the Philippines would respond with countermeasures. He said the Philippines seeks no conflict with any nation, but “will not be cowed into silence, submission, or subservience.” China’s coast guard said its actions were lawful.
 

Manila prepares for ‘worst-case scenario,’ while India wades into dispute

Second Thomas Shoal — an icicle-shaped atoll about 200 km from the Philippines and 1,000 km from China — covers roughly the same area as Manhattan.
A Philippine navy official told the South China Morning Post that, when the next Sierra Madre resupply mission is determined, the troops onboard are “prepared for the worst-case scenario.”

India’s external affairs minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, visited Manila from March 25–27 and met with the Philippines’s secretary of foreign affairs to review “the entire spectrum” of the bilateral relationship. Jaishankar “firmly reiterated” India’s support for the Philippines.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has expanded its involvement in South China Sea issues, participating in exercises with the U.S., Japanese, and Philippine navies, abandoning its “neutral” stance on the 2016 tribunal ruling on China’s maritime claims, and selling coastal-defence missile systems to the Philippines.
 

Washington, Beijing court Indo-Pacific allies

National security advisers from the Philippines and U.S. discussed Beijing's "coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions" in the South China Sea earlier this week; a U.S. readout emphasized Washington’s “ironclad commitments” to Manila, formalized through the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.

It was reported last week that the U.S., Philippines, and Japan will “launch joint naval patrols in the South China Sea later this year.” The move will be announced at a historic April 11 trilateral leaders’ meeting in Washington, D.C., part of a wider suite of U.S. initiatives to ‘balance’ and deter China in the region.

The trilateral meeting comes as China looks to shore up partners of its own: Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto on Monday for Subianto’s first post-election visit abroad. Subianto told Xi that he supports closer China-Indonesia ties, and the two reportedly discussed the possibility of expanding maritime security co-operation. Foreign ministers from Laos, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam also travelled to China this week for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.