Defence Update Warns of ‘Increasingly Assertive’ China, Pledges More Indo-Pacific Action

Leaders of Japan, the Philippines, and the U.S. convene in Washington, D.C., today for a historic trilateral summit. The meeting comes as China and the Philippines feud in the South China Sea and the U.S. works to fortify ties with states that can offset Beijing’s influence in the region.

Japan is a key part of that strategy, and a joint statement from AUKUS members on Monday declared that the three allies were considering co-operating with Japan on ‘Pillar II’ advanced technology projects.

Canada has expressed interest in joining AUKUS and made strides this week to bolster its own defence capabilities with the release of a long-awaited 45-page defence update entitled “Our North, Strong and Free.” The document outlines a C$8-billion increase in defence spending over the next five years and provides a glimpse into current Canadian strategic thinking on the Arctic, Euro-Atlantic, and Indo-Pacific.
 

Arctic in focus as spending ticks up

The update places particular focus on the Arctic, casting a wary eye to Russia and China’s interest in the region, including the presence of Chinese vessels mapping and collecting data in the Arctic Ocean.

Ottawa projects that, by 2029-30, Canada’s defence spending to GDP ratio will hit 1.76 per cent — still short of NATO’s target of two per cent. Additionally, much of the new spending is ‘backloaded’ until after Canada’s next federal election.
 

The China challenge

Canada will manage its defence relationship with China “purposefully,” according to the update, especially on trade, navigation and overflight, nuclear non-proliferation, and human rights, hinting at past and ongoing disputes with Beijing.

The document’s most direct paragraph asserts that Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran share a disregard for “sovereignty, non-intervention, human security, and free and open trade,” and that, through their actions, these countries normalize the use of “violence, coercion, and intimidation.”

Dovetailing with the government’s AI investments a day earlier, the update contends that AI will transform conventional warfare, and notes that Beijing is ramping up its adoption of defence and security technologies, sometimes “to the detriment of Canada’s economic and military security.”