The U.S. presidential election next Tuesday will send ripples across parliaments, markets, and moods in the Indo-Pacific, with the two candidates locked in a dead heat going into Election Day.
The Democratic nominee, Vice-President Kamala Harris, is expected to embrace like-minded partners such as the Philippines and Japan, maintain high-level dialogue with Beijing while keeping high tariffs in place, and continue to shun regional trade deals such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, is more unpredictable: he’s floated plans for applying punishing tariffs on Chinese goods while praising Chinese President Xi Jinping, and has called Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi both “a fantastic man” and “a total killer.”
Contrasting views on China, Taiwan, North Korea
Harris said in 2023 that, when it comes to China, it’s “not about decoupling, it is about de-risking,” noting she sought competition rather than conflict with Beijing.
Trump, for his part, said in an August interview with Fox News that “there is no greater critic of China than me,” but claimed “I had a great relationship with them." The former president has also proposed a blanket 60 per cent tariff on all Chinese goods.
Harris is expected to continue U.S. President Joe Biden’s support for Taiwan. However, she sidestepped a question this month about whether her administration would come to the island’s defence if it were invaded.
Trump, meanwhile, said in June that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for protecting the island, and argued earlier this month he would convince Xi to stand down from a blockade of Taiwan by telling him: “If you go into Taiwan... I’m going to tax [Chinese imports] at 150 per cent to 200 per cent.”
On North Korea, Trump has said that “he happens to get along with Kim Jong Un very well,” despite a war of words between the two in 2017. Harris, in contrast, asserted in August that she wouldn’t “cozy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim Jong Un,” and would strive for a complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
