Mark Carney’s Liberal Party secured a minority mandate in Canada’s federal election on Monday, a dramatic reversal of fortune for a party that was on the ropes a mere four months ago.
In the Indo-Pacific, Carney is likely to keep China at arm’s length, strengthen security and economic ties with traditional partners such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, and, potentially, reset the rocky Canada-India relationship. Carney has pledged to cap immigration and shift exports away from the U.S. and towards Asia and Europe.
The Liberals only referred to Asia once in their campaign platform, committing to “strengthen our security [and] build stronger links with our partners in Europe and Asia,” while “fully taking advantage” of existing trade deals such as the Asia-heavy Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
The Liberal plan also promised foreign policy and national security reviews, a trade deal with ASEAN, and a new C$25-billion export credit facility to help Canadian businesses expand into new markets.
Canada’s chairing of the G7 this year is an opportunity for Ottawa to lead and for Carney to showcase his foreign-policy priorities. Australia, India, and South Korea — guests at past G7 summits — are likely eyeing invitations to this year’s leaders’ summit, which takes place June 15–17 in Kananaskis, Alberta.
A Canada-India détente?
The most notable ‘congratulations’ for Carney came from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who said that, “India and Canada are bound by shared democratic values, a steadfast commitment to the rule of law, and vibrant people-to-people ties.” Modi said he looked forward to working with Carney to “strengthen our partnership and unlock greater opportunities for our people.”
In the waning days of the campaign, Carney called the Canada-India relationship “incredibly important” on an economic, strategic, and people-to-people level. He also said “Canada will be looking to ... diversify our trading relationships with like-minded countries, and there are opportunities to rebuild the relationship with India.”
In September 2023, Canada paused bilateral trade talks with India, which had staggered along for over a decade. Following that announcement, former Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau accused India of involvement in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, sending relations into a deep freeze. A year later, in response to “a targeted campaign against Canadians by agents linked to the Government of India,” Ottawa expelled six Indian diplomats, prompting New Delhi to retaliate.
An Angus Reid poll, conducted in partnership with APF Canada and published in December 2024, found 64 per cent of Canadians supported Ottawa “cautiously” re-opening trade negotiations with India.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who’s in the middle of an election campaign himself, also congratulated Carney on his win. In March, Carney announced the details of a C$6-billion partnership with Australia to construct an ‘over-the-horizon' radar system to detect “air and maritime threats” in the Arctic.
Carney ‘clear-eyed’ about China
In the English-language leaders’ debate during the election campaign, Carney said China represented the greatest security threat to Canada.
The next day, he said, “I am very clear-eyed about China,” calling the country “a threat within broader Asia and to Taiwan,” and argued that Ottawa must “engage and take steps to protect ourselves” from Beijing, which is “an emerging threat” in the Arctic.
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson acknowledged Carney’s victory on Tuesday, noting that, “China stands ready to grow its relations with Canada on the basis of mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit.”
During the campaign, China’s ambassador to Canada, Wang Di, requested an interview with The Canadian Press. He argued that “China is Canada's opportunity, not Canada's threat,” and suggested that both sides were on the “right side of history” by opposing American “bullying.”
Beijing has softened its tone abroad as it contends with a stagnating economy and Trump’s sky-high tariffs.
