A terrorist attack that killed 26 people, most of them tourists, in Kashmir on April 22 has ignited a dangerous set of reprisals between India and Pakistan, which India blames for the attack.
A little-known group called The Resistance Front has claimed responsibility. New Delhi maintains it is a proxy for Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET), a Pakistan-based terrorist group responsible for the deadly attack in Mumbai in 2008.
Pakistan has denied any involvement, has alleged the LET is largely inoperative, and has called for an international investigation into the incident.
Meanwhile, New Delhi has downgraded bilateral relations, recalled diplomats, and threatened to suspend the Indus Water Treaty, an arrangement that has governed the distribution and management of water between the two neighbours since 1960.
The challenge for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be to respond to the intense domestic pressure to take action without jeopardizing his country’s strategic interests.
Conflict between India and Pakistan has been a regular feature of the bilateral relationship since partition in 1947. What makes the current crisis especially fraught is the lack of major international powers pressuring the two sides to de-escalate.
According to APF Canada Senior Fellow Michael Kugelman, the U.S.’s focus on other major international crises may mean India and Pakistan are left “on their own” to de-escalate.
Canadian Prime Minister-designate Mark Carney was the last G7 leader to issue a statement condemning the attack.
