On Sunday, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced his resignation, telling a press conference that it was the “appropriate time” to step aside following the conclusion last month of substantive trade negotiations with the U.S.
Now, the world’s fourth-largest economy will have to navigate a crucial month of rudderless leadership and uncertainty, with Ishiba’s successor inheriting a challenging relationship with the U.S., an emboldened China, and growing domestic concerns over inflation, immigration, and the cost of living.
Ishiba, a former defence minister, was in office for less than a year. Last October, his party suffered a devastating loss in Japan’s lower house election. A subsequent upper house election loss this July seems to have sealed his fate: the LDP and its junior partner, the Komeito party, secured just 47 of the 125 contested seats — the coalition’s worst performance since the late 1990s — and lost their majority.
In an ominous end to his remarks on Sunday, Ishiba noted that, after seeing the leaders of China, North Korea, and Russia at a military parade in Beijing last week, “I cannot help but fear that the security environment will become even more severe going forward.”
Succession scramble
Ishiba replaced Kishida Fumio, who resigned last fall following a slew of scandals. The LDP will select a leader on October 4, who will likely become prime minister after a parliamentary vote. (Opposition parties could, however, band together in support of another contender.)
According to Nikkei, Ishiba's most likely successors include Japan’s agriculture minister, Koizumi Shinjiro, and Takaichi Sanae, who, if elected, would be the first woman to become Japanese prime minister. Takaichi lost to Ishiba in a nail-biter LDP leadership election in 2024. She was elected for the first time to Japan’s lower house in 1993, and, since then, has served as a minister in a variety of portfolios. Hayashi Yoshimasa, Ishiba’s chief cabinet secretary — roughly equivalent to the role of a deputy prime minister — is also reportedly in the running to replace the outgoing prime minister.
In the short term, Japan’s leadership vacuum could delay domestic legislation and complicate a busy fall of diplomacy. In the next two months, for example, Japan’s leader will be expected to participate in summits for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and host a high-stakes visit by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Momentum for Canada–Japan ties
Japan is Canada’s fourth-largest trading partner and a key security and defence partner. Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand visited Tokyo in July, where she met with her Japanese counterpart. The two ministers noted the importance of “bilateral co-operation on national and economic security, including energy.”
According to Reuters, Alberta is in “early-stage talks with several Japanese crude oil refiners” regarding a potential joint energy venture. The deal would see the province build infrastructure to enable Japanese companies to process crude in Alberta.
