Voters rebuked Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Sunday’s lower house election, peeling back its majority and dealing a heavy blow to its fledgling leader, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru.
Ishiba’s LDP won 191 seats — down from 247 before the election — while Komeito, the LDP’s coalition partner, secured 24 seats. The parties’ combined 215 seats is short of the 233 needed for a majority in the House of Representatives.
A stolid Ishiba told reporters on Monday that his party “received an exceptionally harsh judgement from the public” and that “we must humbly and solemnly accept this outcome, reflect sincerely, and work toward a complete renewal of our party.”
The outcome introduces political uncertainty to a country largely defined by predictability: the conservative LDP has ruled Japan almost continuously since 1955, with its only opposition stints in 1993–94 and 2009–12.
Japan’s main opposition party, the centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party, won 148 seats in Sunday’s general election, up from 98.
Some voters appear to have abandoned the LDP over recent party scandals, a weak yen (hiking the cost of food and energy imports), policy ‘flip-flopping,’ and runaway price increases on staple goods.
Real wages in Japan also remain largely stagnant: after ticking up in June for the first time in two years, wages declined in August.
Japanese lawmakers must meet within 30 days of an election to elect a new prime minister, with Nikkei reporting that a special parliamentary session could occur as soon as November 11.
Ishiba said on election night that any potential coalition depended “on how much each party wants to realize their policies.” Both the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People — which hold 38 and 28 seats, respectively — are reportedly open to working with the LDP on a case-by-case basis.
Voter turnout for the election was 53.9 per cent, the third-lowest figure since the Second World War.
All politics is local, for now
Japan’s foreign affairs will take a backseat to the pressing need to elect a prime minister and establish a government. The country’s next prime minister will likely have less bandwidth for foreign policy issues, especially if no formal coalition is organized and parliamentary support is secured on a vote-by-vote basis. More ambitious policies may have to be temporarily shelved.
Japan’s regional leadership on peace and security initiatives could also diminish in the short term. Former Japanese prime minister Kishida Fumio enacted a historic defence spending hike last year, expanding Japan's defence budget by 16 per cent from 2023–24. But sustained defence funding hinges on yet-to-be-implemented tax increases.
A year at the ballot box
Japan is one of Canada’s most important partners in the Indo-Pacific. Ottawa must now wait for a government to form in Japan — and hold its breath as the all-important U.S. elections approach.
Japan’s election caps a momentous year of votes across Asia: voters in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mongolia, Pakistan, South Korea, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan all headed to the polls in 2024.
