Japanese voters will head to the polls on October 27, following a snap election call by newly instated Japanese prime minister Ishiba Shigeru, a self-described“defence nerd” who has floated plans for an ‘Asian NATO’ and is determined to revise a key security treaty with the U.S.
The 67-year-old's ascension to Japan’s top office was hard-won: the “eternal outsider” ran in five separate Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership contests. He narrowly won last week’s run-off against conservative favourite Takaichi Sanae, who, if victorious, would have become Japan’s first woman prime minister.
Ishiba unveiled his cabinet on Tuesday, appointing former defence minister Iwaya Takeshi as foreign minister. The new prime minister kept on Hayashi Yoshimasa as his chief cabinet secretary, who will act as Ishiba’s de facto deputy.
There are only two women in Ishiba’s 20-strong cabinet. Only seven of the 20 appointees have prior cabinet experience.
Ishiba, a member of Japan’s lower house since 1986, served as Japan’s defence minister (2007-08), agriculture minister (2008-09) and countryside revitalization minister (2014-16). He was also director-general of Japan’s Defense Agency, the predecessor to the Ministry of Defense.
The LDP, scarred by a long list of recent scandals, dominates Japanese politics: the party has been in power almost continuously since 1955. An LDP victory in the upcoming election, however, is not guaranteed.
An ‘Asian NATO’?
In his victory speech last week, Ishiba hinted at his vision for an ‘Asian NATO,’ stating that: “In a time of declining U.S. power, the question is how to create a collective security system in the region. We should think about organically combining many alliances that we have."
Indian external affairs minister S. Jaishankar rejected that idea on Tuesday, telling an audience in Washington, D.C., that “we don't have that kind of strategic architecture in mind.”
Washington is skeptical as well. Three weeks ago, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific said it was “too early to talk about collective security in that context,” preferring to focus instead on “the region's existing formal architecture.”
Ishiba is looking to bolster ties with “friendly” countries (and Taiwan) and is expected to reinforce two key ‘legacies’ of Kishida Fumio: hiking defence spending and continuing dialogue with South Korea.
Ishiba would likely be more assertive than Kishida when dealing with the U.S. On Tuesday, he reiterated plans to revise the “asymmetrical” 1960 U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, which obligates Japan to “provide bases” to the U.S. Ishiba hopes Washington would allow Japanese Self-Defense Forces to be stationed in Guam, a U.S. island territory in the Western Pacific, to “strengthen deterrence capabilities.”
Ishiba has also expressed skepticism about Washington’s objection, on security grounds, to Nippon Steel’s proposed takeover of U.S. Steel.
Trudeau welcomes Ishiba
On Tuesday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau congratulated Ishiba, stating in a press release that “Canada and Japan’s relationship is rooted in shared values and deep economic and cultural ties.”
Trudeau will have the opportunity to meet Ishiba at the ASEAN Summit in Laos next week.
Last week, Ottawa stood up the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) Cyber Command, which will consolidate the CAF’s cyber capabilities and complement the Communications Security Establishment’s contributions to the ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence alliance.
Tokyo previously expressed interest in joining the Five Eyes, although its accession in the short term is unlikely.
