Over the past three weeks, North Korea has provoked its southern neighbour with a playbook blending tried-and-true ‘scare tactics’ with newer, more unconventional methods.
Since late May, Pyongyang has dispatched into South Korea more than 1,000 trash-filled balloons — carrying, variously, cigarette butts, scrap paper, and excrement — jammed radars, and fired ballistic missiles into the sea. On Sunday, several North Korean soldiers wandered over the military demarcation border, supposedly by mistake, prompting their South Korean counterparts to fire warning shots.
This week, Seoul dusted off several towering speakers and, for the first time in years, blared world news and K-pop — including songs by BTS, the chart-topping South Korean boyband — over the border. Pyongyang is now reportedly readying speakers of its own, threatening to turn the mine-laden demilitarized zone into a cacophony of duelling propaganda and playlists.
APF Canada’s Tae Yeon Eom, a Northeast Asia Research Scholar, told Asia Watch that, while these incidents may unsettle some South Korean citizens, the tactics are largely reminiscent of past spats. Eom added that recent events represent a return to tensions not seen since 2018, the year Pyongyang and Seoul agreed to a landmark peace deal.
Tensions bubble at border
On May 27, North Korea attempted to launch its second spy satellite, coinciding with a leaders’ summit between China, Japan, and South Korea. The rocket carrying the satellite, however, exploded in mid-air. The next day, Pyongyang flew its first batch of ‘trash balloons’ over the border.
Following the initial barrage, South Korea’s National Security Council announced that Seoul would “suspend” the 2018 peace deal, in turn restoring South Korean military aerial-surveillance and training along the demilitarized zone. Pyongyang said in 2023 that it intended to scrap the deal altogether.
The broader state of Northeast Asian security
APF Canada’s Eom noted that the U.S. has “expressed concern over the heightened tensions and urged North Korea to de-escalate.” On Monday, defence officials from South Korea and the U.S. gathered in Seoul for the third meeting of the Nuclear Consultive Group, a year-old bilateral body designed to discuss North Korea’s nuclear threat. According to a U.S. readout, the two sides made progress on security and information-sharing protocols, communication in crises, and more.
Earlier this month, senior officials from Canada and South Korea participated in an inaugural bilateral dialogue, set to occur annually, on human rights in North Korea. Days later, Mongolia — one of the few countries sufficiently ‘neutral’ to broker meetings with North Korean officials — hosted the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on regional security co-operation, which also included Canadian delegates such as APF Canada’s Vice-President, Research & Strategy, Vina Nadjibulla.
Nadjibulla told Asia Watch that closer alignment between North Korea and Russia complicates an already tense security environment in the North Pacific. She noted that Canada has, for years, worked with partners in the region on the denuclearization of North Korea and, as part of its Indo-Pacific Strategy, can play an even more active role.
