Unnerved by the unpredictability and animosity of U.S. President Donald Trump, China and India are rebuilding bridges — resolving trade and border issues — as Trump, drifting closer to Russia, muddies the geopolitical waters.
Relations between China and India nosedived following deadly border clashes in 2020. But since last fall, both sides have worked to repair ties.
In October 2024, Beijing and New Delhi agreed to a border-patrolling pact to defuse tensions. That same month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first in-person meeting since 2019.
On Monday, China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, met with Modi, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval in New Delhi. Wang and Jaishankar discussed trade and bilateral exchanges, while Wang’s meeting with Doval dealt with their shared 3,440-kilometre border.
Jaishankar told Wang this week that “having seen a difficult period in our relationship, our two nations now seek to move ahead.” In another sign of a thaw, Beijing and New Delhi have reportedly agreed to resume direct flights between the two countries “as soon as next month.” India also resumed issuing visas to Chinese tourists in July, following a five-year freeze.
In the most recent fiscal year, trade between China and India hit US$127.7 billion. Trade between the U.S. and India during the same period reached US$131.84 billion.
From Russia with levies
Modi will travel to China at the end of August for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, his first trip to China in seven years. Russian President Vladimir Putin will also attend the summit.
India’s importing of Russian oil has drawn Trump’s ire; he has threatened to double the current 25 per cent tariff on India by August 27 if no bilateral agreement is reached. India’s hopes for a breakthrough on this issue following last week’s summit in Alaska between Trump and Putin were in vain. Modi and Putin spoke on Monday.
Making matters worse, Washington has doubled down on its tariff threat, with Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro penning an op-ed this week justifying the looming levies. Navarro didn’t explain, however, why India is being singled out for its purchasing of Russian oil, while others, such as China and Turkey, dodge secondary sanctions.
Washington's tough talk has spurred a backlash in India. A growing number of Indian consumers are boycotting American goods — mirroring the ‘Elbows Up’ movement in Canada — while some Indian commentators suggest Trump's threats have less to do with India “funding Russia’s war machine” and more to do with leverage in bilateral trade talks.
Both sides are digging in: Modi has been defiant so far, and U.S. negotiators, originally set to travel to New Delhi at the end of the month to talk trade, aren’t expected in India anytime soon. Indian officials, meanwhile, are slated to travel to Russia next week for bilateral trade talks.
Ottawa’s dilemma
Ottawa is equally unnerved by Trump’s tactics and has rushed to diversify trade ties to offset its shaky relationship with Washington.
Canada appears to be ‘resetting’ ties with India; a crucial step in this regard will be the reintroduction of high commissioners in Ottawa and New Delhi. Recently announced Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola, meanwhile, have snuffed any hopes for a ‘fresh start’ between Ottawa and Beijing.
For Ottawa, shrewd diplomacy and continued high-level talks will be required to smooth over relations with the two major powers.
