As headlines this week warn of further fighting between Iran and Israel, the list of potential and ongoing global ‘flashpoints’ grows larger, creating challenges for some governments — and opportunities for others.
The Russia-Ukraine war, a civil war in Myanmar, hostilities in the South China Sea, tensions over Taiwan, and now, a potential Middle East conflict all command the increasingly divided attention of diplomats around the world.
U.S. influence diminished, aid delayed
The U.S.’s ability to manage these crises may be waning. On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and urged China to emphasize to Iran that escalation in the Middle East “is not in anyone’s interest.” Two days later, Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel, “99 per cent” of which were intercepted.
The Financial Times reported this week that Washington “has repeatedly asked” Beijing to use its leverage with Tehran, including to resolve the Red Sea shipping crisis. But U.S. officials have “seen no evidence that China has done anything to apply pressure.”
Partisan politics at home are also undermining the Biden administration’s influence abroad. Since February, the U.S. House of Representatives has sat on a Senate-passed US$95-billion aid package for Israel, Indo-Pacific allies including Taiwan, and — most controversially — Ukraine.
Embattled House Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled an intricate plan this week to untangle the contentious US$60-billion Ukraine funding package from support for Israel and Taiwan, setting up votes this weekend on four separate bills. The bills that pass would then be stitched together and sent back to the Senate as one package.
Japan, Philippines step up to the plate
Skirmishes elsewhere, including in the Indo-Pacific, show no signs of abating: on Saturday, a Chinese coast guard vessel intercepted two Philippine ships in the South China Sea, obstructing their passage for eight hours.
The incident unfolded on the edge of Beijing’s ‘nine-dash line’ — a mere 35 nautical miles from the Philippines (roughly the distance from West Vancouver to Nanaimo). And in what is anticipated to be a maritime ‘gamechanger,’ Chinese researchers recently developed the world’s first AI-controlled water cannon, ensuring greater accuracy (and aggravation) at sea.
Beijing’s aggressive manoeuvring was likely a response to last week’s historic trilateral summit between leaders of the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines. In a ‘vision statement’ following the summit in Washington, D.C., the three leaders agreed to work together “for decades to come,” and announced a range of collaborative initiatives spanning critical technologies, climate, and maritime security. The co-operation agreement from this latest ‘minilateral’ summit — a key feature of Biden’s foreign policy toolkit — will “change the dynamic of the region,” said Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
Addressing a joint meeting of Congress, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio branded Tokyo as a key “global partner” of the U.S. Noting the “threat” posed by China, Kishida told lawmakers that “Ukraine of today may be East Asia of tomorrow.”
