A decades-long border feud between Cambodia and Thailand escalated last week, scuttling an uneasy truce signed in October and reigniting serious fighting along the countries’ shared 817-kilometre border.
Since December 8, 16 Thai soldiers and 16 civilians have died as a result of the conflict; Cambodia has reported 17 civilian deaths, with 77 more injured. An estimated 800,000 people have been displaced.
Most of the fighting has raged along the border, but Cambodia’s defence ministry alleged on Monday that Thai F-16s bombed a bridge 70 kilometres into Cambodian territory.
Last Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he had pushed both sides to cease fighting (again). But Thailand’s prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, rejected that characterization, stating the next day that Thailand would continue fighting.
The latest iteration of the dispute boiled over in May, when a Cambodian soldier was killed along the border. Heavy fighting erupted two months later. The origins of the dispute can be traced back to the Franco–Siamese Treaty, signed in 1907, which determined much of today’s border between Cambodia and Thailand.
Cambodia’s population is 17.6 million; its GDP is US$46.4 billion. Thailand’s population is 71.6 million; its GDP is US$526.4 billion.
Rallying around the flag
Anutin is hoping to tap into Thailand’s “nationalist fervour.” The new prime minister, in office for only three months, dissolved Thailand's parliament last week to avoid a perilous no-confidence vote. An election is now scheduled for February 8, months ahead of schedule.
But even as some voters rally around the flag, the election outcome is far from certain: a recent poll of 2,500 Thai voters conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration found that 40.6 per cent of respondents didn't see a “suitable” candidate for prime minister.
A further 17.2 per cent of respondents selected Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the leader of the People’s Party (formerly the Move Forward Party), while a mere 12.3 per cent chose Anutin.
ASEAN seeks elusive truce
With Cambodia and Thailand clashing, ASEAN has its hands full: Myanmar’s bloody civil war has raged since February 2021, and despite the bloc’s largely “reactive” attempts to resolve the war, there’s no end in sight.
ASEAN was initially scheduled to hold a special foreign ministers’ meeting on “the situation in Cambodia and Thailand” on Tuesday, but Thailand requested that the meeting be postponed to December 22. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim told media that, "We are still appealing to them to stop the fighting. This is very critical.”
But even if a ceasefire is hammered out, more flare-ups are likely in the months to come. Trump, in his pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize, may push for another truce, but fighting will likely persist until both sides engage in meaningful dialogue.
