Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will aim to untangle the Gordian knot of Canada–China relations this week, enticed by the prospect of more trade (and less dependence on the U.S.), but alert to concerns over economic coercion, security, and human rights.
Carney’s trip, the first by a Canadian prime minister since 2017, runs from Tuesday to Saturday. He’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, and other high-ranking officials.
The trip is a key piece of Carney’s broader trade diversification agenda, which aims to double non-U.S. exports by 2035. China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner — with total bilateral trade reaching C$130.7 billion in 2024 — but the relationship is complicated by tariffs, Chinese foreign interference, transnational repression, aggression against Taiwan, support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, and lingering distrust over Beijing’s arbitrary arrests of two Canadians in 2018.
In 2024, Canada, following the U.S.’s lead, imposed a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. A 25 per cent tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum also remains in place, although in October, Ottawa granted temporary relief to “some steel and aluminum varieties imported from China that are not produced in Canada,” according to Reuters.
Chinese levies on Canadian goods include a 100 per cent tariff on Canadian canola oil, canola meal and peas, and a 25 per cent levy on Canadian pork and seafood.
What Canada wants
A breakthrough on these tariff troubles would be a surprise; more likely is a mutual commitment to unravelling “respective trade sensitivities,” continued leader-level communication, and strengthening ties in areas such as energy, agriculture, climate change, and international security.
In Beijing, Carney will be joined by a phalanx of Canadian ministers from foreign affairs, energy and natural resources, industry, agriculture, and trade. (When Carney visited the White House for a similarly high-stakes meeting in May, he brought his foreign affairs, trade, and public safety ministers.) Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe will join Carney in Beijing.
On Monday, Human Rights Watch urged Carney to “make human rights a key focus of his visit.” This is unlikely: Ottawa did not mention human rights in announcing the trip and recently deleted references to “forced labour” on its webpage on Canada–China relations. The previous Liberal government under Justin Trudeau, in contrast, consistently highlighted such issues.
In October, APF Canada, in partnership with Angus Reid Institute, published a poll showing 27 per cent of Canadians hold a favourable view of China, up from 16 per cent earlier in 2025. Fifty-nine per cent of respondents, however, still view the country negatively.
What China wants
A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry said Monday that “China attaches high importance to the visit,” and hopes the two sides will “step up dialogue and communication, enhance political mutual trust, properly handle differences, [and] address each other’s concerns,” among other goals.
China’s foreign ministry stated that the initial October meeting between Carney and Xi was “pivotal,” noting that bilateral ties were "brought back onto the right track of development after seven years of twists and turns.”
This week, Xi will be mainly looking to tap into Canadian natural resources, including lumber, grains, oil, and LNG. Beijing will also want Canada to confirm that its ‘One China policy’ is unchanged and refrain from mentioning Xinjiang and China’s aggression in the South China Sea, among other sensitive issues.
These sensitivities were seemingly on display this week, when two Liberal MPs cut short a visit to Taiwan. The MPs said their return was “informed by advice from the government," noting that "it's important that we avoid confusion with Canada's foreign policy, given the overlap with the prime minister's engagement in Beijing."
Conservative foreign affairs critic Michael Chong argued the move amounted to “kotowing to Beijing's authoritarianism."
