Duterte Down but Not Out?

The Philippines House of Representatives voted to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte, a move likely to inflame the feud between the Duterte camp and that of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

The impeachment, based on allegations of misusing public funds and threatening Marcos Jr. and other senior government officials, will face a tougher vote in the Senate. Duterte denies the allegations, claiming they are politically motivated.

Manila is increasingly a strategic linchpin; tensions with Beijing over territorial claims in the South China Sea have nudged it toward deeper co-operation with Canada, the U.S., Australia, and Japan. A prolonged impeachment process could hamstring Marcos’s ability to continue to pursue this more outward-facing and security-focused foreign policy.

Ottawa is negotiating a free trade agreement with the Philippines, expected to conclude later this year. On May 12, Trade Minister Maninder Sindhu announced from Manila that Canada will invest C$2 million in a manufacturing hub aligned with the Luzon Economic Corridor. The Corridor has backing from the U.S. and Japan, with seven additional partner countries recently announced. Canadian investments could focus on a data centre, logistics, and energy.

Separately, Ottawa reached another milestone in its trade diversification vis-à-vis Southeast Asia. The Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement became law in Canada, after Bill C-18 received Royal Assent last week. Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s largest economy and increasingly significant for Canada on critical minerals, energy, infrastructure, and supply chain resilience.