Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae made history on Sunday, securing a rare ‘super-majority' win in the country’s lower-house elections. Her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 316 of the 465 seats up for grabs, the first time in Japan’s postwar history that one party has won more than two-thirds of the seats.
The party’s resounding win — and return to electoral dominance after years of stagnation and scandal — can be chalked up to Takaichi’s personal popularityand dogged work ethic (her motto is “I will work, work, work, work, and work”), her “proactive” fiscal policy and firm approach to dealings and disagreements with China and the U.S., and a disorganized opposition.
Takaichi was elected LDP leader in October; she is the first woman to become Japanese prime minister.
Before the snap election, the LDP held 198 seats, holding together a fragile majority with help from the right-wing Japan Innovation Party. Unshackled after four months of managing a coalition government, Takaichi can now set her agenda in motion. She’s expected to focus on cost-of-living relief and a broader stimulus package; in a press conference on Monday, she pledged to suspend an eight per cent consumption tax on food for two years and invest more in homegrown companies.
The LDP’s juggernaut status translates into immense political power: even if Japan’s upper house rejects a bill, LDP members in the lower house can override this decision, “dramatically easing the path for passage of contentious bills,” according to Nikkei. The LDP will also boast a majority on all parliamentary committees. But with great power comes a bit of peril: in an editorial, The Mainichi, a local centrist newspaper, pushed Takaichi to “strive for careful consensus-building" and warned against governing unilaterally.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei index soared on Monday, as investors cheeredpolitical stability and Takaichi’s pro-growth policies. Sunday’s election turnout was 56.26 per cent, slightly higher than Japan's 2024 general election.
It's not you, it’s Xi
A monthslong spat with China over Taiwan helped boost Takaichi’s popularity. But in the wake of her victory, Takaichi — described as “hawkish” on China — softened her tone: "Precisely because there are concerns and challenges between Japan and China, communication is essential,” she said.
Beijing wasn’t in a reconciling mood this week, however, skipping congratulations for Takaichi and noting that its policy wouldn’t change “because of one election.” In contrast, when Takaichi’s predecessor, Ishiba Shigeru, was elected in October 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated him, writing that both sides should pursue “a path of peaceful coexistence [and] everlasting friendship.”
Canadian Prime Minister Carney, who’s expected to visit Japan soon, was one of the first leaders to congratulate Takaichi on her win. Japan is one of Canada’s most important allies in the Indo-Pacific; trade totalled C$37.7 billion in 2024.
Carney may see a kindred spirit in Takaichi. According to the Globe and Mail, Carney is exploring the possibility of calling an early election to capitalize on his own favourable polling numbers. (Carney’s office denies this report.) Carney’s Liberal Party is two seats shy of a majority; poll aggregator 338Canada puts support for the Liberals at 43 per cent.
Thai voters reward incumbent, too
A mirror election unfolded in Southeast Asia on Sunday, with Thailand’s incumbent prime minister — whose popularity was boosted by a border conflict with Cambodia — scoring a decisive win.
Anutin Charnvirakul’s conservative Bhumjaithai Party won 193 seats in Thailand’s 500-member House of Representatives. It’s not a majority, but it’s still a surprise victory for Anutin, who will now negotiate with potential coalition partners.
The People’s Party — the latest incarnation of a twice-banned, youth-led reformist party — secured 118 seats. Pheu Thai, a long-dominant party revolving around the powerful Shinawatra clan, won only 74 seats, its worst showing ever.
