A year ago, it was not obvious that Canada–India relations could be pulled back from the brink. Diplomatic expulsions, public recriminations, and allegations of foreign interference had frozen one of Canada’s most consequential Indo-Pacific partnerships.
Yet since Prime Minister Mark Carney and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the margins of the G7 summit in Kananaskis last June, a different pattern has emerged: deliberate, step-by-step re-engagement. Mr. Carney’s visit to India this week is the first real opportunity to convert that political reset into tangible gains for Canadians.
The groundwork for a successful visit has been laid. Ministerial dialogue channels have been restored. Foreign Ministers alone have met five times since last year. At their October meeting in Delhi, they agreed to a roadmap for rebuilding the relationship and, crucially, separated the frictions that must be managed from the co-operation that should be advanced. At the G20, the two Prime Ministers — alongside Australia — reinforced that approach by launching a trilateral partnership on technology and innovation, signalling an emerging alignment among middle powers seeking to collaborate on critical technologies, energy security, and resilient supply chains without being forced into binary choices between the United States and China.
Security mechanisms have also been set up to manage the most contentious issues through dedicated law-enforcement and national-security channels, reducing the risk that every dispute becomes a relationship-wide crisis. February’s visit to Ottawa by India’s National Security Advisor— and the agreement on a structured workplan for national security and law-enforcement co-operation, including the creation of liaison officers in both countries — marks a concrete step toward placing those issues on a separate institutional track. Dedicated security mechanisms make it possible to manage disputes without freezing the entire relationship. They also create political space, and political space should now be used to deliver tangible results.
Three results, in particular, will determine whether Prime Minister Carney’s visit succeeds: progress on trade, momentum in energy co-operation, and concrete collaboration in emerging technologies.
India is the fastest-growing large economy and is on track to become the world’s third largest within this decade. It is emerging as a major hub for artificial intelligence and digital innovation. It is a scale market for Canadian energy, agri-food, and critical minerals. And it is actively diversifying and de-risking its own partnerships.
Over the past two years, India has negotiated trade agreements with the United Kingdom, the European Union, the European Free Trade Association, and New Zealand, among others. India’s relations with Europe have seen a significant deepening, with France earlier this month elevating its relationship with India to a Special Global Strategic Partnership. India now has preferential trade arrangements with every G7 country — except Canada.
Without a trade agreement, Canadian firms will continue to lose ground as competitors consolidate their advantages. This is why a Canada-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) is not simply desirable — it is a strategic imperative. India offers Canada what few markets can: size and growth. Canada offers India advanced technologies, clean-energy expertise, world-class research institutions, and mobility pathways for talent and students. The complementarities are evident. What is required is political ambition. Mr. Carney’s visit should secure a clear commitment to finalize an ambitious agreement within a clearly defined timeframe.
If CEPA sets the strategic framework, energy is where that framework can begin to produce immediate results. India’s energy demand is projected to grow faster than any other major economy over the next two decades. It will account for a significant share of global oil and gas demand growth while simultaneously expanding renewables and clean-energy capacity. At the same time, New Delhi has signalled a desire to diversify energy imports as geopolitical risks persist.
Canada is a stable and reliable supplier of crude, with growing LNG capacity, abundant critical minerals, and expertise across nuclear, hydrogen, and clean-technology systems. During Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson’s visit to India in January, the two countries relaunched the Canada–India Ministerial Energy Dialogue and committed to expanding co-operation in crude oil, LNG, uranium, and critical minerals. Commercial announcements during Mr. Carney’s visit — whether in crude supply, uranium contracts, or mineral partnerships — would send an important signal about the durability of the reset
The third area of deliverables is emerging technologies. India’s hosting of the AI Impact Summit this month underscores its ambition to shape artificial intelligence deployment at scale, particularly across the developing world. Standards-setting in AI will shape industrial competitiveness, defence applications, and democratic resilience. India’s scale and ecosystem and Canada’s strengths in AI research and responsible governance make for a natural partnership.
The Canada-India-Australia Trilateral on Technology and Innovation—announced by the three leaders at the G20 in November — should now be sharpened with concrete outcomes: joint research platforms, collaboration on standards and safety testing, co-ordination on securing the mineral inputs that underpin digital supply chains, and structured university partnerships. Canadian universities are strategic assets in this equation, and co-funded doctoral programs and talent-mobility frameworks would anchor the relationship institutionally and economically.
Beyond these sectoral priorities lies a deeper strategic convergence. In Davos earlier this year, Mr. Carney outlined a more pragmatic Canadian foreign policy — one focused on middle-power diplomacy, diversification, resilience, and strategic autonomy. That message was well received in India and across Asia. Canada is, in many ways, having a moment: seen as a credible middle power seeking to expand its partnerships. That creates a real opportunity for Prime Minister Carney to use this India trip not only to repair a damaged relationship but to build an enduring strategic partnership designed to serve Canadian interests in a more divided and uncertain world.
