Carney Heads to NATO Summit Following Submarine Announcement

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney joined his fellow NATO leaders in Ankara, Türkiye, on Tuesday and Wednesday for the annual summit of the defence alliance, discussing the Russia–Ukraine war, increased military spending, and the U.S.–Iran conflict.

Leaders from across the 32 NATO countries also announced tens of billions of dollars' worth of arms deals, ranging from drones and planes to ballistic missiles. Ottawa, for one, unveiled C$1.9 billion in defence investments over the next eight years. 

Last year in The Hague, NATO leaders agreed to increase defence spending to five per cent of GDP by 2035. Canada's projected defence spending will likely hit 2.13 per cent of GDP in the 2026–27 fiscal year. 

South Korea’s Lee the lone 'IP4' leader in Ankara

Over the last two years, the Indo-Pacific has slid down NATO's list of priorities, as the alliance shifts its focus back to Europe, and partner countries in Asia bristle against U.S. President Donald Trump's hostile foreign policy.

Attendance reflects that shift. Of the leaders of the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) — a NATO partner-country group of Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea — only South Korean President Lee Jae Myung attended the summit this year. Australia, Japan, and New Zealand dispatched their defence ministers instead.

In contrast, in 2022 and 2023, all four IP4 leaders attended, likely heartened by U.S. President Joe Biden's focus on Asia, including through initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

IP4 leaders have been invited to every NATO summit since 2022.

Germany's win is South Korea's loss

Carney brought good news to the summit from Halifax, N.S., where he announced on Monday that Germany-based TKMS was the federal government’s preferred supplier for a contract of up to 12 submarines. South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean lost out on the lucrative deal, which will be the largest defence procurement in Canadian history.

Sun Ryung Park, APF Canada's Senior Research Specialist, Northeast Asia, told Asia Watch that "the TKMS decision is strategically revealing. Canada appears to have prioritized NATO interoperability, European defence-industrial integration, and the risk-reduction benefits of joining a German–Norwegian submarine ecosystem over Hanwha’s faster-delivery and broader industrial partnership pitch."

Park says that while the news is disappointing for Seoul, Canada–South Korea ties "remain strong," pointing to the 2025 Canada-ROK Security and Defence Cooperation Partnership. The test now, she notes, "is whether Ottawa can preserve momentum with Seoul in energy, critical minerals, and the Arctic."

As The Korea Times noted, the loss marked "a second major setback for Hanwha against TKMS after Korea's shipbuilder withdrew from India's Project-75I submarine program, which TKMS later won with Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders." That project, worth about C$13 billion, entails the production of six diesel-electric stealth submarines. India's The Tribune reported in 2025 that the country only had 16 conventional submarines, including 10 that are 25–40 years old.