Sunday was Writ Day in New Zealand, the formal beginning of a campaign that'll likely end with a 'kingmaker' tipping the balance to one of the country's two major parties.
Centre-right National — the party of New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon — is polling at just 25.9 per cent, its lowest figure in six years. Centre-left Labour, the other major party, is polling at 30.8 per cent. The Greens are at 14.8 per cent. Voters head to the polls on November 7.
A coalition or minority government is almost guaranteed. Analysts suggest Labour's odds of forming a government are slightly better if the party links arms with the Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and the centrist Opportunity Party.
Since New Zealand's first vote under its mixed-member proportional system in 1996, nine out of the 10 elections have produced coalition or minority governments.
Luxon and Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins, Luxon's immediate predecessor as prime minister, clashed in a leaders' debate on Tuesday. Cost-of-living concerns, health care, education, taxes, and wages dominated the docket.
The world as it is
Under Luxon, New Zealand has pledged to hike defence spending, signed a free trade agreement with India, drawn closer to partners such as Singapore, South Korea, and Vietnam, and explored "potential participation" with AUKUS's 'Pillar II,' which focuses on the development of “advanced capabilities.” (Canada registered its interest in "collaborating" on AUKUS Pillar II projects in 2024.)
Labour would not join Pillar II but also appears largely aligned with Ottawa's worldview. In a wide-ranging September speech on foreign policy, Hipkins said that "we cannot simply rely on old relationships, old institutions, or old assumptions about trade, security, and international co-operation."
"We have to deal with the world as it is," said Hipkins, invoking a familiar sentiment.
The last time a Canadian prime minister travelled to New Zealand was in 2014.
