Southeast Asians are most worried about climate change, major-power rivalry, and the U.S.’s volatile foreign policy, according to an annual pulse-check of regional elites.
On Tuesday, the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a research centre in Singapore, released its State of Southeast Asia 2026 Survey.
The region’s “most pressing challenge” is climate change and extreme weather events, according to 60 per cent of respondents. More than half of the 2,008 respondents said their “top geopolitical concern” was U.S. President Donald Trump; in 2025, China’s aggression in the South China Sea took the top spot. Perhaps because of Trump, over the past year, the report notes Beijing’s “strategic relevance” has strengthened relative to Washington.
There’s room for optimism amid the turmoil. A complementary report, published this week by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, shows that ‘ASEAN+3’ (i.e. ASEAN and China, Japan, and South Korea) witnessed economic growth of 4.3 per cent in 2025, “performing much better than projected immediately after the April tariff shock.”
The report notes that, supply-wise, “regional production networks have evolved from a Japan-centred hub into a dense, interconnected architecture anchored by China.” Trade and investment among ASEAN members, however, “remain shallow.”
As economies integrate further with China, new risks emerge, making them susceptible to economic coercion. Moreover, as the Iran conflict has shown, the region remains vulnerable to energy shocks.
ASEAN and Ottawa
Canada is looking to boost trade with ASEAN. The Philippines said that one of its priorities as this year’s ASEAN chair would be to conclude the Canada–ASEAN free trade agreement (FTA).
Bilateral trade negotiations with the Philippines, meanwhile, are expected to wrap “a few months earlier” than the Canada–ASEAN FTA, according to Manila.
