In the News

U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum double to 50 percent

The Early Edition with Stephen Quinn (CBC Radio),  June 4, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Distinguished Fellow, Yves Tiberghien

Excerpt: Yves notes that steel and aluminum exports from Canada represents "up to 1% of Canadian GDP and 3-4%exports," with tariffs impacting works across prominent provinces such as Ontario, Quebec, and BC. 

But he notes that we "shouldn't panic yet as [the measures] are probably not sustainable for the U.S. It is really a bargaining position... and Canada can easily retaliate" when it comes to steel imports. 

He notes that Canada should "not quite be done with the U.S. [as a trading partner," but that we should still "try to find new markets."

Former PM says Canada should move past 'recent disputes' with India amid murder probe

CBC News, June 2, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Regarding security and diplomatic concerns between Canada and India, Nadjibulla notes that the issue "needs to be dealt with, but in its own track" such as a mechanism  designed "to deal with this immediate issue, but also to build trust, and create a platform for dialogue."

"We need to proceed step by step and address the issues that are difficult. And at the heart of that are national security concerns, on both sides." 

Looking ahead to the G7 summit in June she highlights that "since 2019, India has been invited to every G7 in recognition of its growing importance, both as the fourth-largest economy as well as an important voice for the Global South." Canada's new government thus has a clearly opportunity to start re-building relations with India.

Opinion | As Malaysia’s Huawei chip storm shows, sovereign AI is a fraught pursuit

South China Morning Post, June 1, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Distinguished Fellow, Elina Noor

Excerpt: "Is a national AI architecture run on Chinese integrated circuits... materially distinguishable from an AI stack underlaid by Meta or Google subsea data cables?

... In other words, what is there to differentiate a Chinese AI stack from an US AI stack in the eyes of third countries when both lock in external reliance for the longer term?

For many non-superpower countries aspiring to autonomy, sovereign AI looks realistically more like tweaking AI models or architecture for local use and governance, rather than constructing the stack from scratch." 

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warns about China's ambitions in Asia | DW News

DW News, May 31, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Nadjibulla responds to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's address at the  Shangri La Dialogue hosted in Singapore, noting that the U.S. seems "committed to deterring China's actions of coercion and aggression in the [Indo-Pacific] region." 

"the message to China was much... the U.S. cannot be pushed back from the region and the U.S. will stand up for it's allies. It was the most comprehensive articulation of the depart of Defence's vision for the the Indo-Pacific 

"There is some continuity here from with what the Biden administration... and under the first Trump administration... what's different this time around is that the defence strategy is completely contradictory with the economic strategy and the economic approach to the region."

India-Philippines reaching for new strategic horizons

Asia Times, May 29, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Indo Pacific Research Fellow, Don McClain Gill

Excerpt: "The Philippines and India have witnessed an upward trajectory in their bilateral partnership amid growing uncertainty over Indo-Pacific security architecture brought by China’s expansionism.

"... The Philippines’ growing strategic cooperation with India demonstrates this multi-alignment, and more robust bilateral ties would complement US interests in preserving the regional rules-based order."

*first appeared on Pacific Forum 

Pakistan wants South Asian stability to be a top issue on G7 communiqué

The Hill Times, May 28, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: When it comes to the upcoming G7 meeting, Nadjibulla notes that for the group "to play a role in mediating the [India-Pakistan] issue would be really difficult." 

Intermediary measures by the G7, she notes, are unlikely to go beyond the May 9th  communiqué. "If anything is to be said it would be along the lines of ensuring that there is stability in South Asia and de-escalation, but I don’t think that we’ll see further calls for mediation.”

"The G7 could reiterate the language of the statement that it issues, but I don’tPakistan wants South Asian stability to be a top issue on G7 communiqué...  There’s a very big difference between India and Pakistan in how the issue of Kashmir should be dealt with.”

Pakistan’s Generals Get a Reputational Boost

Foreign Policy - South Asia Brief, May 21, 2025

Featuring: Michael Kugelman, the writer of Foreign Policy’s weekly South Asia Brief and APF Canada Senior Fellow 

Excerpt: "The highlights this week: Pakistan’s military sees its political fortunes improve after the recent conflict with India, U.S.-India trade talks keep moving with the Indian commerce minister in Washington, and India announces import restrictions on goods from Bangladesh.

"...India-Pakistan narrative battle. In the wake of their latest conflict, India and Pakistan have each announced that a group of prominent individuals, mainly senior politicians and former top diplomats, will travel the world in the coming days to get international buy-in for their governments’ positions on the crisis."

After Trudeau-Will New Canada PM Reset Ties with India?

Smita Sharma Journalist, May 19, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Reflecting on Canada's recent political shifts, Nadjibulla notes that "now with the election behind us, with a new Prime Minister, a new cabinet, the meeting in Washington that was seen, from Canada's perspective at least, to have gone relatively well, this is seen as a challenging time but that Canada has a plan and people are solidly behind the new government." 

But she notes that Canada will need a "new relationship" with the U.S. given the new "moment" both nations are now in. "Everyone else is also in that same position of finding a new normal with the U.S." 

When it comes to rekindling ties with India, Nadjibulla highlights that the new government has a desire to deepen relations with like-minded partners. She notes Canada should be focused on watching India's signals around key issues such as investigations into crimes against Khalistan activists on Canadian soil.

Eight good ideas to rediscover our 'panache'

La Presse, May 19, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Nadjibulla contributes to a curated list of suggestions for the new Canadian Foreign Minister that envisions a more confident Canadian foreign policy agenda. 

"The country must take full advantage of its [G7] presidency, including opening the doors of the G7 to other allied countries, such as Australia and South Korea," Nadjibulla commented. She emphasized the importance of multilateral organizations like the Five-Eyes and NATO, noting that Canada “need[s] to be at as many tables as possible. That’s where we can work with others to promote a rules-based world."

Anita Anand’s appointment as Canada FM will give boost to ties with India: Experts

Hindustan Times, May 15, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Nadjibulla highlights that Anand's appoint may present a “political opening for a reset” when it comes to diplomatic relations with Canada and India.

While it is ultimately at Carney's discretion, Nadjibulla see's Modi's online congratulatory messages to the new Canadian Prime Minister as a “good sign...[while] one of the most important signals” about the future of Canada's relationship with India continues to be the question of Modi's attendance to the G7 Summit, hosted under Canada's presidency in Alberta in this June.

Should Canada Reset Relations with India and China?

TVO Today's The Agenda with host Steve Paikin, May 13, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla with The Agenda host Steve Paikin and special guests Rohinton Medhora, Professor of Practice at McGill University and Jeff Mahon, Director of Geopolitical & International Business Advisory at StrategyCorp.

Excerpt:  

(India segment)

“There are serious issues that need to be addressed in the relationship, and the road to rebuilding the relationship is going to be a long one and will take a lot of political leadership on both sides and confidence.

“I think there are a few things that could be done right away to signal political readiness on our side. The G7 is coming up, Canada has the presidency, we are in charge of who gets to be invited in addition to the G7 members. I think sending an invitation to Prime Minister Modi, who has been attending all of the G7 meetings since 2019, would be a clear messaging from our side.

“There’s a lot that can be built on, the opportunities are endless, but we need to start
with some political signalling.”

(China segment)

“Canada was actually quite slow in coming to the realization that China under Xi Jinping had really changed. Australia, Japan, the U.S., other allies got there much faster in recognizing the China threat to national security and economic security.

“I think we are at a moment where we need a new conversation, public discussion about what would a made-in-Canada China strategy look like? We can’t reduce the relationship with China strictly to economic terms, in fact that is what China would like us to do, it would like to say our economies are complementary – which is true, we sell a lot of things that China wants - but there is a lot more to this relationship including China’s positioning on issues that we care about . . . and we need to make sure we are able to advance our interests and protect our values.”

CBC Francophone Radio Circuit: Philippines Elections

CBC Radio-Canada, May 13, 2025

Featuring: Alexandre Veilleux, Advisor, Research & Communications (Quebec), APF Canada.

Excerpt: Alex Veilleux participated in a circuit of interviews for Radio-Canada's French-language programs across Canada to discuss the results of the mid-term elections in the Philippines and its global impact.

Veilleux spoke with local stations in cities such as Vancouver, Edmonton, Ottawa, Windsor, Regina, and Winnipeg. 

A Look into the Relations of India and Pakistan

Canadian Global Affairs Institute Podcast, May 12, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla with host Colin Robertson and guests Dr. Mariam Mufti and Randolph Mank.

Excerpt:  "It's important to put on the table that this is the most serious escalation in tensions and violence that we've seen between India and Pakistan in decades . . .  I think de-escalation would only happen if both sides can satisfy that they have met their objectives that they can essentially walk away with honour intact.

"And a lot of the kind of the messaging on the ground at the moment is actually quite nationalistic and doesn't leave so much space for that. But of course that can change."

U.S. and China agree to lower tariffs. Did Trump or Xi cave?

CBC – Power & Politics, May 12, 2025

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt:  Responding to announcements regarding a tariff pause between the U.S. and China, Nadjibulla highlights that "it is not a reset... it is a temporary truce... and it is one that was necessary because the pain point was just too high. The two sides... went so far it was essentially a trade embargo... and the agenda of de-risking continues... but they needed to de-escalate... and now there is a long process ahead to actually arrive at a deal."

In terms of Trump's goals and strategy, Nadjibulla notes that key questions still concern "what would negotiation look like going forward... to what extent the U.S. can meet those objectives... and to what extent this will play into negotiation with [the U.S. and] others," such as China and India?

How Canada can navigate the India-Pakistan crisis

The Hill Times - Politics This Morning, May 12, 2025

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt:  Nadjibulla tells The Hill Times she expects Canada to follow the stead of other Western allies in calling for restraint and de-escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict. She also notes the large South Asia diaspora in Canada and the that risk ongoing conflict could pose to Canada's local communities. 

Despite diplomatic tensions in recent years, Nadjibulla notes that Canada has "important relationships in both India and Pakistan. We also have an Indo-Pacific Strategy, and India is a key partner us implementing that strategy."

CBC's Natasha Fatah speaks to Vina Nadjibulla about the escalation between India and Pakistan

CBC, May 10, 2025

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt:  Nadjibulla notes that the "last four days we have seen unprecedented escalations" in the tensions between India and Pakistan in Kashmir. Foreign leaders have now stepped in to mediate based on "alarming intelligence that the situation could get much worse." 

The situation has also shown the potential danger of what "fighting could look like using Chinese and Western latest military equipment." She also notes that China has had a limited diplomatic role despite saying "let's deescalate," perhaps because if "this whole situation results in India being taken down a notch in it's global ambitions, China could potentially benefit."

Has the India-Pakistan ceasefire been broken?

CTV, May 10, 2025

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt:  "Everyone wants to find an offramp, de-escalation, and stop the fighting, but the situation is violate and a lot still is unknown."

Nadjibulla notes that the U.S. and China are key players in diplomatic discussions and de-escalation efforts, but that a "full conflict should bring in regional powers... [such as] China, Iran, Russia. We are already at a stage of escalation that we haven't seen really since 1999... it's in everyone's interests to make sure the ceasefire holds." 

Are India and Pakistan on the brink of war?

CBC News, May 7, 2025

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt: "We knew that military action was likely coming because that's what has happened historically" between India and Pakistan following a violent incident. 

"India is a critical regional partner, part of the Indo-Pacific . . . so the developments will have implications [across the globe] . . . but the world cannot afford another major conflict . . . the bandwidth for world leaders to deal with another issues is very limited and the desire on all sides is to see deescalation and restraint. 

"This will have a long lasting impact, even if the tension is contained. Moving forward, the relationship will be at a new low for a while." 

India-Pakistan ‘the most militarized’ region in the world today

CTV News, May 7, 2025

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, President & CEO, APF Canada

Excerpt: Nankivell notes that "the root cause [of escalating tensions is] that this is a disputed territory" with a history of conflict between Pakistan and India, but the "horrific attack on April 22nd that was targeting tourists" in Kashmir, along with "India's retaliat[ion] with military strikes . . . [makes] this is the most militarized, heavily armed, tense region in the world today."

Nankivell also highlights that the nuclear capacity of both nations makes this escalation "very concerning . . . [but] it's not in anyone's interest in Pakistan or India to allow a full scale war to break out . . . and certainly the international community is going to work very hard to make sure this does not escalate further."

CBC Listen Radio Circuit

CBC Listen, May 7, 2025

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt: Vina Nadjibulla participated in a circuit of radio interviews across Canada for CBC Listen in cities such as Yellowknife, Halifax, Ottawa, Calgary, Vancouver, and more.

"We knew that the situation was extremely tense and India was likely to take a response to the terrorist attack on April 2nd, but the scale of India's response... was really surprising... but probably the worst [incident] we have seen between these two nuclear armed countries in decades." 

Nadjibulla notes that "Kashmir has been at the heart of India and Pakistan" tensions for decades, "but this current crisis comes at a time of relative calm" and a push for economic development in the region. She affirms that "the potential here for larger scale conflict is worrying" and we should be watching now for Pakistan's response. 

(Excerpt from Saskatchewan's The 306 with Peter Mills)