Over the weekend, 14 countries, including Canada, reaffirmed support for a decade-old ruling that invalidates Beijing's sweeping claims over much of the South China Sea, siding with the Philippines and, in the process, attracting China's ire.
The July 11 joint statement, released to commemorate the 2016 Philippines-China South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal Award, noted that the decision is "a significant milestone and is final, legally binding, and definitive," and that "there is no legal basis for China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea."
The basis for that arbitration was the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to which both the Philippines and China are parties.
Estimates vary, but up to US$6.4 trillion worth of trade transits the South China Sea each year. Beijing claims 90 per cent of the sea, clashing with the claims of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
In the joint statement, the countries — including Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the Philippines, and the U.S. — also opposed any harassment, obstruction, or intimidation in the South China Sea, a clear nod to China's grey-zone tactics.
Beijing again called the 2016 decision "a worthless piece of paper" and argued that the tribunal never had jurisdiction in the first place, as China opted out of maritime delimitation disputes under UNCLOS in 2006. Chinese state media went into overdrive criticizing the joint statement, with one outlet declaring that "any external force attempting to stir up trouble over the South China Sea issue is merely a mantis trying to stop a chariot and will ultimately be crushed."
Seoul stays mum
South Korea was missing from the July 11 missive. Trade dependency is one part of the story: last year, China was the top destination for South Korean goods exports (US$131 billion, or 18% of total exports) and goods imports (US$142 billion, or 22% of total imports), according to the Hudson Institute.
But Japan, which signed onto the statement, has similar trade exposure to China: in 2024, 17 per cent of Japanese goods exports went to China, while 22.5 per cent of Japanese goods imports came from China.
Seoul has shied away from explicitly endorsing the ruling, stating in 2016 instead that it "takes note of the arbitration award." Days before that ruling, South Korea announced that it would deploy an American missile-defence system in response to North Korean threats.
As APF Canada wrote at the time, "Beijing considers [the missile system] an encroachment on its 'core interest,' which is China-speak for crossing its red line." For these reasons and more, "Seoul has consistently avoided positioning itself in maritime disputes," according to a chapter in External Stakeholders in the South China Sea.
Additionally, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is seeking a more conciliatory approach to China compared to his predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol, hoping to tap Beijing for any future talks with North Korea and avoid the economic coercion levied against, for example, Japan over the past eight months.
Going to bat for Manila
Canada's endorsement of the statement aligns with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's "principled and pragmatic" foreign-policy approach and the tightrope walk of Canada–China relations.
Despite Carney's January visit to China, the bilateral relationship remains complicated by outstanding irritants, including Chinese tariffs on Canadian pork and pea starch, Taiwan, foreign interference, and — as the July 11 statement demonstrates — the South China Sea. It's unlikely that Beijing will single out Canada for the joint statement, but the issue may arise if Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at the APEC Summit in November.
For Ottawa, signing the statement also shows solidarity with the Philippines. Carney hosted Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. earlier this month in Vancouver, B.C., where the two leaders upgraded ties to a Strategic Partnership.
