Asia Offers Growth as PM Carney Courts Europe

Canada EU Summit Montreal Oct 2026
Antonio Costa, president of the European Council, left, Mark Carney, Canada's prime minister, centre, and Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, arrive during a welcome ceremony at the EU-Canada summit in Montreal, Quebec, on Friday, Oct. 30, 2026. | Photo: Nasuna Stuart-Ulin/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is hosting European Union leaders this week in Montréal to form "a new, ambitious alliance," calling a potential partnership "a beacon for other democracies."  

Since being elected, Carney has cast Brussels as a natural ally; he's also said that the international order "will be rebuilt out of Europe." But the EU — despite its many strengths — is an occasionally distracted suitor, reckoning with sluggish growth, infighting over budgets and Ukraine (and how to label Canada's relation to the bloc), and ascendant far-right leaders.  

The EU's real GDP, for example, grew just 1.5 per cent in 2025, up from 1.1 per cent in 2024. The IMF projects growth of 1.4 per cent in 2026.  

In contrast, the IMF expects Asia Pacific real GDP growth of 4.8 per cent in 2026, offering a high-growth market for Canadian exporters and investors. The Indo-Pacific is also home to more than four billion people compared to the EU's roughly 450 million inhabitants.  

Ottawa has not given Asia short shrift; Ottawa is set to wrap deals this year with ASEAN, India, and the Philippines (with Thailand close behind). Carney's ministers have racked up numerous trips to Asia, and he's made normalizing ties with India and China hallmarks of his foreign policy. 

 

 

There may be an opportunity for everyone to come together: on Sunday, Carney reiterated that a new Canada–EU "alliance" would be "open enough that others can join," winking at Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. This would complement Canada's efforts to 'bridge' the EU and the CPTPP. 

'Show me your friends, and I’ll tell you who you are'  

Much of Carney's foreign-policy playbook comes down to familiarity — and history: the Prime Minister's Office highlighted in a Sunday statement that the Canada–EU relationship is "the oldest formal relationship the EU has with any industrialized country." Carney has also remarked that "Canada was built on the bedrock of three peoples: Indigenous, French, and British." 

Carney's first trip as prime minister was to France, and he's spoken with his British counterpart 14 times since coming to office, the second-most of any country.  

Carney, a former Bank of England governor, also boasts extensive personal connections in Europe (and vacations in Italy).  

The EU's single market and institutional infrastructure — not to mention the pre-existing Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement — make a deeper partnership easier than, say, abstractly 'partnering' with the Indo-Pacific.  

Defence and security, alongside AI, energy, and critical minerals, have been key aspects of the Canada–EU relationship, highlighted by a 2025 Security and Defence Partnership and Canada's recent entry into the EU's Security Action for Europe. Carney's decision to pick Germany's TKMS over South Korea's Hanwha as the preferred bidder for a landmark submarine contract also underlined the value Ottawa places on integration with Europe and NATO.  

But "common values" underpin the relationship, according to Carney. In a speech to EU lawmakers last month in Strasbourg, France, Carney argued that both sides' commitment to "the rule of law, [...] human dignity, individual freedom, and democracy share the same deep roots."  

Carney mentioned "values" seven times in his Strasbourg speech.  

A trade war trade-off?  

Ottawa has approached its dealings with certain Indo-Pacific countries differently, stressing interests over values. (There was no mention of "values" in a Canada–China leaders' statement from January 2026.) 

Canadians appear aware of this 'trade-off.' A 2025 APF Canada poll of Canadians highlighted the dramatic shift in attitudes regarding Canada's engagement with China and the tension between values and interests, especially as ties soured with the U.S. 

In October 2021, 77 per cent of respondents said that, in dealing with China, "human rights and the rule of law" should be more important to Canada than "trade and investment opportunities." In July 2025, that figure fell to 52 per cent.  

This week's summit in Montréal offers Ottawa an opportunity to embrace the familiarity of Europe while extending an invitation to its Indo-Pacific partners, especially CPTPP members.  

Ted Fraser

Ted Fraser is Managing Editor at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. He's written for The Globe and Mail, The Toronto Star, and The Hill Times and holds an M.A. in International Affairs from Carleton University. Previously, he worked as an analyst at Global Affairs Canada. 

Ted researches and writes APF Canada's weekly newsletter, Asia Watch.