The Takeaway
On February 8, 2026, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a historic landslide victory in the House of Representatives election, winning 316 of 465 seats. The vote marks the first time since the establishment of Japan’s postwar parliament in 1947 that a single party has won a two-thirds majority in the lower house. This ‘super-majority’ will significantly strengthen Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s political legitimacy and policy continuity — particularly on fiscal policy, security posture, economic security strategy, and Japan’s capacity to lead with partners in the Indo-Pacific.
In Brief
- The LDP secured 316 seats out of 465 in the House of Representatives, clearing the 310-seat threshold needed for a two-thirds super-majority. The Japan Innovation Party (JIP), the LDP’s coalition partner, won 36 seats, bringing the coalition’s total to 352 seats.
- At a press conference after the victory, Takaichi stated that “the LDP and the JIP should proceed with a key policy shift,” describing the result as a “green light” to push her agenda through to the end.
- Takaichi expressed her preference to continue governing in coalition with the JIP, but the JIP has yet to formally clarify its stance. Takaichi also indicated that she would not reshuffle her cabinet, planning instead to reappoint most of the ministers from her first cabinet.
Implications
The landslide victory fundamentally reshapes Japan’s domestic political landscape. The snap election — called on the first day of the regular Diet session, a rare procedural move — served as a stress test of the Takaichi cabinet’s assertiveness and reliability amid coalition instability. The result was an unequivocal personal victory for Takaichi. She has remained more popular than any of her recent predecessors across multiple segments of the public, with approval ratings reportedly reaching 72 per cent among younger voters (ages 18–29) in particular. In this way, she opted to reset the political landscape despite leading a minority government prior to the election.
As a right-wing conservative representing a minority faction within the LDP, Takaichi took a significant political gamble by calling a snap election. The outcome now provides her with a clear mandate to advance her policy ambitions. The super-majority enables de facto independence from coalition constraints — even as she signals interest in maintaining co-operation with the JIP — following the collapse of the LDP’s 26-year partnership with Komeito, the LDP’s long-time centrist coalition ally. With more than two years until the next upper house election and over four years until the next general election, Takaichi now enjoys substantial political time and space to govern.
The election result also sends a strong signal internationally amid heightened geopolitical tension and a growing emphasis on economic security. In her victory remarks, Takaichi stated that the LDP “will advance the challenges towards constitutional revision.” While the LDP still lacks a majority in the upper house required to formally initiate constitutional change, the statement is significant: revising Japan’s postwar constitution — particularly its constraints on military activity — would mark a major shift in Japan’s security posture and has already generated concern among neighbouring countries. Beijing, in particular, has continued to press Takaichi to retract previous remarks related to Taiwan. More broadly, Takaichi’s rhetoric — she has said that "diplomacy must be strong” — underscores a firm external posture that prioritizes deterrence and strategic clarity over reassurance.
What’s Next
1. The next Diet session on February 18
The Diet is expected to convene on February 18, at which point it will re-elect Takaichi as prime minister. Her second cabinet will take clearer shape shortly thereafter. The most immediate policy challenge is the FY2026 budget; the government is expected to pursue an expansionary fiscal policy, including increased public spending on industrial policy, defence, and social policy, such as a cut to consumption tax.
2. Security, trade, and Canada–Japan co-ordination
Takaichi will visit the White House and meet U.S. President Donald Trump on March 19, aiming to reaffirm the strong Japan–U.S. alliance at a time of shifting U.S. strategic priorities.
The meeting comes after Washington issued an executive order on February 9, Establishing an America First Arms Transfer Strategy, which places weapon exports at the centre of U.S. national strategy. For Japan, the implication is immediate: alliance credibility is increasingly tied not only to defence spending levels, but also to concrete procurement decisions. The March summit will likely bring direct pressure to expand procurement of U.S.-made systems and shoulder a greater share of the regional security burden. At the same time, Takaichi’s newly secured single-party super-majority positions her government to accelerate Japan’s broader economic security agenda. This includes advancing supply-chain resilience, critical minerals development, artificial intelligence governance, and electric vehicles and battery supply chains, alongside a more assertive leadership role within the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership framework.
For Canada, this convergence creates clear opportunities for deeper co-ordination with Japan in areas where strategic and industrial interests align, particularly critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, and rules-based trade. Japan will remain a strategic, stable, like-minded Indo-Pacific partner, but Canada’s diplomatic calculus will become more complex if Tokyo’s strategic posture towards China continues to harden.
• Edited by Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, and Ted Fraser, Senior Editor, APF Canada
