Dans l'actualité

La stratégie commerciale désillusionnée du Canada pour la Chine

WGI World,  5 juin 2025

En vedette : Stephen Nagy, agrégé supérieur de recherches à la FAP Canada

Extrait : « Il est crucial de reconnaître que les politiques commerciales de Trump, aussi erratiques qu’elles puissent paraître parfois, ne représentent pas une rupture mais plutôt une continuité d’une réorientation économique américaine commencée sous la présidence de George W. Bush et accélérée par les administrations qui ont suivi.

« Chaque administration s’est éloignée de plus en plus du libre-échange inconditionnel, reconnaissant que les États-Unis ont besoin de rebâtir leur base industrielle pour concurrencer la Chine. Le deuxième mandat Trump n’est donc pas une rupture du consensus bipartisan, mais une manifestation agressive. »

Entreprises et gouvernements ont besoin de meilleures données sur le commerce pour lutter contre une frontière plus « épaisse »

Foreign Policy,  5 juin 2025

En vedette : Danielle Goldfarb, agrégée supérieure de recherches à la FAP Canada

Extrait : Dans une édition spéciale de Foreign Policy, Goldfarb note que le Canada doit améliorer sa visibilité dans les chaînes d’approvisionnement, particulièrement alors que le pays cherche à approfondir ses liens commerciaux avec l’Europe et à réduire son exposition relative au marché américain.

Dans une édition spéciale de Foreign Policy, Goldfarb note que le Canada doit améliorer sa visibilité dans les chaînes d’approvisionnement, particulièrement alors que le pays cherche à approfondir ses liens commerciaux avec l’Europe et à réduire son exposition relative au marché américain.

M. Modi mérite un siège à la table du sommet des leaders du G7

The Globe and Mail, 5 juin 2025

Auteure : Vina Nadjibulla, vice-présidente de la FAP Canada et chargée de la recherche et de la stratégie
 

N.B. Cet article d’opinion a été publié après l’annonce de la première liste des invités jeudi et avant la décision du premier ministre du Canada d’inclure M. Modi dans les invitations du vendredi.

Extrait : « Alors que le Canada accueille le sommet des leaders du G7 en Alberta ce mois-ci, le premier ministre Mark Carney a passé sa première épreuve en politique étrangère : inviter, ou ne pas inviter, le premier ministre Modi. »

Dans un article d’opinion publié dans The Globe and Mail, Mme. Nadjibulla souligne que, tandis que « des voix s’élèvent au Canada pour que New Delhi soit tenue à distance jusqu’à ce que l’enquête sur le meurtre de Hardeep Singh Nijjar en 2023 soit résolue », cette position impulsive sous-estime ce qui est en jeu pour les intérêts propres du Canada, pour la crédibilité du G7 et pour un ordre fondé sur des règles. 

« Inviter M. Modi n’est pas un compromis, mais une nécessité stratégique. »
 

Envoyé de Pékin appelle Ottawa à mettre fin aux tarifs sur les véhicules électriques chinois et alerte contre une « mentalité de guerre froide »

The Globe and Mail  June 4, 2025

En vedette : Vina Nadjibulla, vice-présidente de la FAP Canada et chargée de la recherche et de la stratégie

Extrait : Bien que la Chine demeure un partenaire commercial important dans des secteurs tels que l’agriculture et l’énergie, Mme Nadjibulla note que les « inquiétudes qui existaient par rapport à la Chine il y a quelques mois existent toujours.

« Juste parce que notre relation avec les États-Unis est aujourd’hui difficile, cela ne signifie pas que ces inquiétudes concernant la sécurité nationale et celles relatives à la sécurité économique ont disparu. »

Les tarifs douaniers sur l’acier et l’aluminium canadien ont doublé à 50 %

The Early Edition with Stephen Quinn (CBC Radio), 4 juin 2025

En vedette : Yves Tiberghien, agrégé supérieur de recherches à la FAP Canada

Extrait : Yves note que les exportations d’acier et d’aluminium du Canada représentent « jusqu’à 1 % du PIB canadien, et 3 à 4 % des exportations, » avec les tarifs impactant les emplois à travers les provinces majeures de l’Ontario, du Québec et de la Colombie-Britannique.

Il note également que « nous ne devons pas paniquer encore, car [ces mesures] ne sont probablement pas durables pour les États-Unis. Il s’agit d’une position de négociation et le Canada pourrait facilement riposter » lorsqu’il s’agit d’importations d’acier.

Il ajoute que le Canada « n’a pas encore atteint le bout avec les États-Unis », mais que nous devons continuer à ouvrir de nouveaux marchés. 

Ancien premier ministre déclare que le Canada devrait aller au-delà des « disputes passées » récents avec l’Inde durant les investigations sur le meurtre

CBC News, 2 juin 2025

En vedette : Vina Nadjibulla, vice-présidente de la FAP Canada et chargée de la recherche et de la stratégie

Extrait : Quant aux inquiétudes sécuritaires et diplomatiques entre le Canada et l’Inde, Mme Nadjibulla note qu’il « faudrait traiter la problématique sur sa propre piste », comme dans un mécanisme conçu pour « traiter cette question immédiate, mais aussi pour bâtir la confiance et créer une plateforme pour le dialogue ».

« Nous devons procéder étape par étape et confronter les problématiques difficiles. Là où il existe des questions relatives à la sécurité nationale, des deux côtés. »

Allant de l’avant du sommet du G7 en juin, elle souligne que « depuis 2019, l’Inde a été invitée à tous les sommets du G7 en reconnaissance de son importance croissante, étant la quatrième grande économie au monde, mais aussi une voix influente dans l’hémisphère sud. Le nouveau gouvernement canadien a donc une opportunité claire pour commencer à reconstruire les relations avec l’Inde. »

Opinion | As Malaysia’s Huawei chip storm shows, sovereign AI is a fraught pursuit

South China Morning Post, June 1, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Distinguished Fellow, Elina Noor

Excerpt: "Is a national AI architecture run on Chinese integrated circuits... materially distinguishable from an AI stack underlaid by Meta or Google subsea data cables?

... In other words, what is there to differentiate a Chinese AI stack from an US AI stack in the eyes of third countries when both lock in external reliance for the longer term?

For many non-superpower countries aspiring to autonomy, sovereign AI looks realistically more like tweaking AI models or architecture for local use and governance, rather than constructing the stack from scratch." 

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warns about China's ambitions in Asia | DW News

DW News, May 31, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Nadjibulla responds to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's address at the  Shangri La Dialogue hosted in Singapore, noting that the U.S. seems "committed to deterring China's actions of coercion and aggression in the [Indo-Pacific] region." 

"the message to China was much... the U.S. cannot be pushed back from the region and the U.S. will stand up for it's allies. It was the most comprehensive articulation of the depart of Defence's vision for the the Indo-Pacific 

"There is some continuity here from with what the Biden administration... and under the first Trump administration... what's different this time around is that the defence strategy is completely contradictory with the economic strategy and the economic approach to the region."

India-Philippines reaching for new strategic horizons

Asia Times, May 29, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Indo Pacific Research Fellow, Don McClain Gill

Excerpt: "The Philippines and India have witnessed an upward trajectory in their bilateral partnership amid growing uncertainty over Indo-Pacific security architecture brought by China’s expansionism.

"... The Philippines’ growing strategic cooperation with India demonstrates this multi-alignment, and more robust bilateral ties would complement US interests in preserving the regional rules-based order."

*first appeared on Pacific Forum 

Pakistan wants South Asian stability to be a top issue on G7 communiqué

The Hill Times, May 28, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: When it comes to the upcoming G7 meeting, Nadjibulla notes that for the group "to play a role in mediating the [India-Pakistan] issue would be really difficult." 

Intermediary measures by the G7, she notes, are unlikely to go beyond the May 9th  communiqué. "If anything is to be said it would be along the lines of ensuring that there is stability in South Asia and de-escalation, but I don’t think that we’ll see further calls for mediation.”

"The G7 could reiterate the language of the statement that it issues, but I don’tPakistan wants South Asian stability to be a top issue on G7 communiqué...  There’s a very big difference between India and Pakistan in how the issue of Kashmir should be dealt with.”

Pakistan’s Generals Get a Reputational Boost

Foreign Policy - South Asia Brief, May 21, 2025

Featuring: Michael Kugelman, the writer of Foreign Policy’s weekly South Asia Brief and APF Canada Senior Fellow 

Excerpt: "The highlights this week: Pakistan’s military sees its political fortunes improve after the recent conflict with India, U.S.-India trade talks keep moving with the Indian commerce minister in Washington, and India announces import restrictions on goods from Bangladesh.

"...India-Pakistan narrative battle. In the wake of their latest conflict, India and Pakistan have each announced that a group of prominent individuals, mainly senior politicians and former top diplomats, will travel the world in the coming days to get international buy-in for their governments’ positions on the crisis."

After Trudeau-Will New Canada PM Reset Ties with India?

Smita Sharma Journalist, May 19, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Reflecting on Canada's recent political shifts, Nadjibulla notes that "now with the election behind us, with a new Prime Minister, a new cabinet, the meeting in Washington that was seen, from Canada's perspective at least, to have gone relatively well, this is seen as a challenging time but that Canada has a plan and people are solidly behind the new government." 

But she notes that Canada will need a "new relationship" with the U.S. given the new "moment" both nations are now in. "Everyone else is also in that same position of finding a new normal with the U.S." 

When it comes to rekindling ties with India, Nadjibulla highlights that the new government has a desire to deepen relations with like-minded partners. She notes Canada should be focused on watching India's signals around key issues such as investigations into crimes against Khalistan activists on Canadian soil.

Eight good ideas to rediscover our 'panache'

La Presse, May 19, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Nadjibulla contributes to a curated list of suggestions for the new Canadian Foreign Minister that envisions a more confident Canadian foreign policy agenda. 

"The country must take full advantage of its [G7] presidency, including opening the doors of the G7 to other allied countries, such as Australia and South Korea," Nadjibulla commented. She emphasized the importance of multilateral organizations like the Five-Eyes and NATO, noting that Canada “need[s] to be at as many tables as possible. That’s where we can work with others to promote a rules-based world."

Anita Anand’s appointment as Canada FM will give boost to ties with India: Experts

Hindustan Times, May 15, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla

Excerpt: Nadjibulla highlights that Anand's appoint may present a “political opening for a reset” when it comes to diplomatic relations with Canada and India.

While it is ultimately at Carney's discretion, Nadjibulla see's Modi's online congratulatory messages to the new Canadian Prime Minister as a “good sign...[while] one of the most important signals” about the future of Canada's relationship with India continues to be the question of Modi's attendance to the G7 Summit, hosted under Canada's presidency in Alberta in this June.

Should Canada Reset Relations with India and China?

TVO Today's The Agenda with host Steve Paikin, May 13, 2025

Featuring: APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla with The Agenda host Steve Paikin and special guests Rohinton Medhora, Professor of Practice at McGill University and Jeff Mahon, Director of Geopolitical & International Business Advisory at StrategyCorp.

Excerpt:  

(India segment)

“There are serious issues that need to be addressed in the relationship, and the road to rebuilding the relationship is going to be a long one and will take a lot of political leadership on both sides and confidence.

“I think there are a few things that could be done right away to signal political readiness on our side. The G7 is coming up, Canada has the presidency, we are in charge of who gets to be invited in addition to the G7 members. I think sending an invitation to Prime Minister Modi, who has been attending all of the G7 meetings since 2019, would be a clear messaging from our side.

“There’s a lot that can be built on, the opportunities are endless, but we need to start
with some political signalling.”

(China segment)

“Canada was actually quite slow in coming to the realization that China under Xi Jinping had really changed. Australia, Japan, the U.S., other allies got there much faster in recognizing the China threat to national security and economic security.

“I think we are at a moment where we need a new conversation, public discussion about what would a made-in-Canada China strategy look like? We can’t reduce the relationship with China strictly to economic terms, in fact that is what China would like us to do, it would like to say our economies are complementary – which is true, we sell a lot of things that China wants - but there is a lot more to this relationship including China’s positioning on issues that we care about . . . and we need to make sure we are able to advance our interests and protect our values.”

CBC Francophone Radio Circuit: Philippines Elections

CBC Radio-Canada, May 13, 2025

Featuring: Alexandre Veilleux, Advisor, Research & Communications (Quebec), APF Canada.

Excerpt: Alex Veilleux participated in a circuit of interviews for Radio-Canada's French-language programs across Canada to discuss the results of the mid-term elections in the Philippines and its global impact.

Veilleux spoke with local stations in cities such as Vancouver, Edmonton, Ottawa, Windsor, Regina, and Winnipeg. 

A Look into the Relations of India and Pakistan

Canadian Global Affairs Institute Podcast, May 12, 2025

Featuring: Vice-President Research & Strategy Vina Nadjibulla with host Colin Robertson and guests Dr. Mariam Mufti and Randolph Mank.

Excerpt:  "It's important to put on the table that this is the most serious escalation in tensions and violence that we've seen between India and Pakistan in decades . . .  I think de-escalation would only happen if both sides can satisfy that they have met their objectives that they can essentially walk away with honour intact.

"And a lot of the kind of the messaging on the ground at the moment is actually quite nationalistic and doesn't leave so much space for that. But of course that can change."

U.S. and China agree to lower tariffs. Did Trump or Xi cave?

CBC – Power & Politics, May 12, 2025

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt:  Responding to announcements regarding a tariff pause between the U.S. and China, Nadjibulla highlights that "it is not a reset... it is a temporary truce... and it is one that was necessary because the pain point was just too high. The two sides... went so far it was essentially a trade embargo... and the agenda of de-risking continues... but they needed to de-escalate... and now there is a long process ahead to actually arrive at a deal."

In terms of Trump's goals and strategy, Nadjibulla notes that key questions still concern "what would negotiation look like going forward... to what extent the U.S. can meet those objectives... and to what extent this will play into negotiation with [the U.S. and] others," such as China and India?

How Canada can navigate the India-Pakistan crisis

The Hill Times - Politics This Morning, May 12, 2025

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt:  Nadjibulla tells The Hill Times she expects Canada to follow the stead of other Western allies in calling for restraint and de-escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict. She also notes the large South Asia diaspora in Canada and the that risk ongoing conflict could pose to Canada's local communities. 

Despite diplomatic tensions in recent years, Nadjibulla notes that Canada has "important relationships in both India and Pakistan. We also have an Indo-Pacific Strategy, and India is a key partner us implementing that strategy."

Natasha Fatah, de la CBC, s’entretient avec Vina Nadjibulla au sujet de l’escalade de la crise entre le Pakistan et l’Inde.

CBC, 10 mai 2025

En vedette : Vina Nadjibulla, vice-présidente, Recherche et stratégie, FAP Canada

Extrait :  Mme Nadjibulla note que « nous avons observé au cours des quatre derniers jours une escalade sans précédent » des tensions entre l’Inde et le Pakistan au Cachemire.

Des chefs d’État étrangers ont désormais proposé de servir de médiateurs, sur la base de renseignements alarmants indiquant que la situation pourrait empirer.
La situation a aussi mis en lumière le danger potentiel d’un conflit impliquant des équipements militaires de pointe occidentaux et chinois.

Elle a également noté que la Chine joue un rôle diplomatique limité, malgré ses appels à la désescalade, peut-être parce que « si cette situation occupe l’Inde et freine ses ambitions mondiales, la Chine pourrait en tirer avantage. »