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Trump tariff threat to Canada mere 'bluster', expert says

AWANI International, February 2, 2026

Featuring Barrett Bingley, Asia Regional Director, APF Canada

Excerpt: Bingley responds to questions regarding the integrity of United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (CUSMA) by noting that tariff threats following Prime Minister Carney's Davos speech are simply more political posturing by the Trump Administration. "Under CUSMA... in the non-market FTA clause... any signatory has a remedy" to terminate the agreement if one partner signs a trade deal with a non-market economy, namely China. 

Despite the threat of tariffs, Bingley argues that the "U.S. buyer... would be the one primarily paying the tariffs" on challenging to 'replace' Canadian products in the U.S. market, such as heavy oil and aluminum, not Canadians. 

Saturday Mornings: Variable Geometry & a New Global Order: What Carney’s Davos Message Means for Asia

Saturday Morning Sit‑Down (podcast), February 1, 2026

Featuring Barrett Bingley, Asia Regional Director, APF Canada

Excerpt: Bingley says Prime Minister Carney's speech in Davos "struck the moment" for Canadians and a global audience because "people had been waiting for someone to crystallize what everyone had been feeling."

However, this 'variable geometry' strategy is easier said than done, as most middle powers, Bingley says, "prefer the global governance mechanisms that are unfortunately breaking down... It's a lot more work, but what's the other path? If your other choice is either bandwagoning or being picked off by a great power... then you're probably going to put the work in."

Bingley adds that while the emphasis on the speech was on the U.S., it's important to consider that other great powers at play. "At a minimum this speech was about the U.S. and China... [and] Russia should probably be included in this." 

Canada-Asia Engagement and Global Strategic Shifts

Channel10 - Israel’s Economic Channel, February 1, 2026

Featuring Jeff Nankivell, President & CEO, APF Canada

Excerpt: Nankivell says "there is a deeper [global] strategic shift on the part of Canada" made apparent in PM Carney's widely recognized speech from the World Economic Forum in Davos last month. 

"The opening to China, and really the re-establishment of a more normal bilateral dialogue after a period of a seven-year freeze, is part of that "variable geometry" strategy to "take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be."

"[Carney] is signalling that Canada is going to pursue partnership with countries even where we have deep disagreements on some issues around values because of the circumstances that we are in, so it's not just about what's happening with China."

Trump-era trade stress leads Western powers to China

The Daily Star, January 30, 2026

Featuring Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt: Carney’s visit “signalled a fundamentally new approach to how Ottawa intends to navigate a more fragmented, contested and uncertain world," wrote Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

Restraining Trump’s America: Carney’s Soft Balancing Needs Global Support

Policy Magazine, January 28, 2026

Featuring T.V. Paul, Distinguished Fellow, APF Canada

Excerpt: "Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call in Davos for joint activism by middle powers to resist U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive neo-imperial policies deserves global support, especially from the states most affected by them.

... The intent of the call is to raise the reputational and normative costs of aggressive policies, thereby affecting the administration’s cost–benefit calculations and influencing American public opinion."

Canadian think tank: Carney advocates for flexible alliances among middle powers to counter the US and China taking sides.

Lianhe Zaobao News (Singapore), January 26, 2026

Featuring Barrett Bingley, Asia Regional Director, APF Canada

Excerpt: Bingley highlights the "variable geometry" strategy posited by PM Mark Carney in Davos last week, and its potential impact on Asian nations.

"Carney is proposing a different development path for middle powers. This path is not simply about counterbalancing or following the power, and it has become less clear which power to side with now... Carney's point is that middle powers can form alliances as needed, formulate new rules, try to organize some countries, and then see how large these alliances can grow."

Despite Trump's continued pressure, Bingley points out that the Greenland incident this month shows that the U.S. still recognizes the value of its allies, limiting the maximum pressure it can exert. "Deep down, the US is certainly thinking about how much pressure they can put on Canada without shocking Europe, South Korea, and Japan and being seen as a highly unreliable ally."

Inside IS 402: Students Navigate High-Stakes Arctic Security Simulation

SFU, January 23, 2026

Featuring Erin Williams, Director of Programs, APF Canada, and Hema Nadarajah, Program Manager, Southeast Asia, APF Canada

Excerpt: Students in this year’s IS 402 Global Security Governance seminar received a unique opportunity as faculty partnered with APF Canada to explore global governance, regime complexity, and security studies, with a particular focus on the North Pacific and the High North.

“The students approached hybrid threats with rigour, creativity, and a strong sense of responsibility—exactly the kind of talent Canada needs in an evolving security landscape,” said Dr. Nadarajah.

Williams praised the university’s next generation of thinkers. "They were given a series of scenario-based challenges to practice consultation, critical thinking, and crisis communication, and to consider how those skills apply in real-world contexts. Each time, they rose to the occasion and performed exceptionally well,” she said.

Asian Countries Face Evolving Geopolitical Landscape

CNA, January 21, 2026

Featuring Barrett Bingley, Asia Regional Director, APF Canada

Excerpt: "Canada is pursuing opportunities on the trade side" of the Asia Pacific, said Bingley, speaking from APF Canada’s regional office in Singapore. "Canada is going for as many bilateral and plurilateral deals as it can."

He highlighted ongoing negotiations with ASEAN and Thailand, as well as the ratification of the new Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CI CEPA). 

Bingley said that, in terms of defence security, "there are going to be areas where middle powers align with each other, and [may] even align with great powers" as there is a "tremendous amount of industrial strategy to be done inside defence and security" in the region, both at the "ministerial level, and the company level. Companies need to be aligning themselves with these opportunities and how their governments are recreating and making sure their geopolitical opportunity and risk teams are on top of these changes." 

Policy Magazine's Policy Package on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s China Trip

Policy Magazine, January 21, 2026

Featuring Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt: Contributing writer Vina Nadjibulla, penned a policy piece on the big-picture implications of Carney’s China trip, including his bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

 “While others continue to delay or hope for a return to a more familiar order,” writes Nadjibulla, “Canada is testing whether a pragmatic, interest-driven approach can provide a workable foundation for an independent Canadian foreign policy.”

How Asia’s economies could benefit from Trump’s global power plays

SCMP,  January 21, 2026

Featuring Barrett Bingley, Asia Regional Director, Singapore Office, APF Canada

Excerpt: “In terms of natural resources and goods trade in general, I think Prime Minister [Mark] Carney has been eminently clear that Canada will seek to diversify its customers, with a strong focus on Asia,” Bingley told This Week in Asia.

“[That’s] not because of a threat of U.S. control over them, but because no one wants a suddenly unreliable customer taking 75 per cent of your product. That’s just not good risk management.”

When it comes to oil supply chains, Bingley said that “recent kinetic engagements between Iran, Israel, and the United States have done little” to increase U.S. sway over energy supplies to import-dependent Asia. “It’s unclear whether current U.S. pressure on the Iranian regime will change this dynamic in any way, or whether it is increasing U.S. leverage at all. Washington might think it has increased leverage, but the market seems to be indicating that it does not believe this,” he added, as crude oil prices remain relatively steady despite international pressure.

Questions loom over future of Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy after China détente

The Hill Times, January 21, 2026

Featuring Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt: Nadjibulla says Carney’s trip to China on January 16 didn’t just reframe Ottawa’s relationship with Beijing, it also signalled a new approach to foreign policy.

“It is a signal of Canada attempting to pursue a more independent foreign policy from the U.S. One that is more fit-for-purpose for today’s world, which is very different from the world of 2022 when the Indo-Pacific Strategy in Canada’s overall foreign policy was being articulated."

“The prime minister is articulating a more pragmatic, interests-based foreign policy that is not as focused on alliances and reliance on the U.S. and traditional mechanisms, such as NORAD, NATO, the United Nations, and [the World Trade Organization], but rather what he calls plurilateral interest-based coalitions that come together on some issues.”

“It’s not that the threat from China has reduced; it’s that the threat landscape has expanded and Canada now has to deal with a lot more than the threat from China,” she added.

What Carney’s China Trip Really Signalled

Policy Magazine , January 17, 2026

Guest Contributor: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt: "Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to China will stand as one of the most consequential moments in Canada’s foreign policy. It not only reframed Canada’s relationship with China but also signalled a fundamentally new approach to how Ottawa intends to navigate a more fragmented, contested and uncertain world.

On the bilateral front, the trip produced three tangible outcomes: a new strategic partnership framework, a roadmap for economic and trade cooperation, and provisional progress on two of the most politically sensitive trade files in the relationship—electric vehicles and canola."

Carney’s China Embrace Widens Gap With US in Trump’s Tariff Era

Bloomberg, January 18, 2026

Featuring Jeff Nankivell, President & CEO, APF Canada

Excerpt:   Carney’s step is a banker’s hedge — a “backing off,” said Jeff Nankivell, who was formerly posted in China as a senior Canadian diplomat.

“It’s fair to assume that the task for the Canadian negotiators was to see what’s the minimum concession we can make on the EV tariff that would be enough to get the Chinese side to agree to significant reductions on their tariffs,” he said. “This is that deal.”

“The first job of a national leader, and especially in times of economic duress, is to keep the country’s options open."

CBC News Network speaks to Vina Nadjibulla on Canada's renewed partnership with China

CBC News Network, January 17, 2026

Featuring Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt: "Prime Minister Carney has taken a really bold move. He's repositioned our relationship with China, has fully recalibrated, and has announced it's a new strategic partnership."

"We've spent a lot of time unpacking the preliminary and provisional deal on EVs and tariffs, and I'm stressing that that is the title of that deal, preliminary and provisional. But we should really be also looking at the broader strategic framework.... which is a big, big signal of the fact that in this new world order, this emerging post-America-dominated order, Canada will now be seeking to distance itself, to have strategic relationships with countries like China, with whom in the past we would have been reticent to call our relationship strategic, given our full alignment with the U.S. and with the Western bloc." 

"[It] comes with risks of strategic dependence on a country that uses . . . economic engagement for political purposes.... So then what can we do about that? Because we can't also not deal with China because in this new moment of the U.S. becoming unreliable... Therefore, we have to pursue strategic, smart engagement that works in some sectors like energy."

Mark Carney in China positions Canada for ‘the world as it is, not as we wish it’

The Guardian, January 17, 2026

Featuring Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt: [W]ith all eyes on how the leaders might frame the deal, Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said the joint statement was the biggest surprise of the summit.

“It is perhaps the most significant achievement, outlining this new strategic partnership between China and Canada,” she said. “And it’s a bold move by Carney to position Canada in this new and evolving geopolitical order, with the hopes of charting a path that leads to more strategic autonomy and agency. He also seems to recognize there are limits to what can be done with China.”

Xi and Carney signal thaw as Canada opens door to Chinese EVs

Nikkei Asia, January 16, 2026

Featuring Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt: Nadjibulla observed: "Forging a 'new strategic partnership' with China was a bold and risky move on the part of Prime Minister Carney. President Trump's reaction signals that for now at least Carney's bet was the correct one."

Still, other risks remain, she said. "Deeper engagement with China brings the potential for strategic dependence, political pressure and national security challenges." Canada has long benefited from strong economic ties with the U.S.... on the other hand, its ties with China have been rocky, particularly after the 2018 detention of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Canada and the subsequent jailing of two Canadians on espionage charges.

Deal Allows 49K Chinese EVs into Canada While China will Trim or Remove Some Tariffs

CBC Power and Politics, January 16, 2026

Featuring Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada 

Excerpt: Nadjibulla says the newly announced trade deal with China signals a "consequential day for Canada-China relations . . . we were talking about how this is going to be a diplomatic tightrope for the Prime Minister. Well, it looks like he has successfully navigated it and has taken some really bold and risky moves."

However, she add that discussion on the "potential economic opportunities coming" should also be tempered with understanding the "serious risks, both in terms of our engagement with China... [and] with the U.S. in terms of how this will play out . . . [O]n balance, I think we should really see this as a fundamental reframing of how Canada will be approaching its relationship, not just with China, but actually more generally."

“This is not a free trade agreement or any kind of trade agreement as we understood before, and this is not even a strategic partnership like we had understood before... this is something new and different, and there needs to be a lot of explaining of how exactly this will serve our interest.”

(Segment begins at 1:17:40 mark) 

Canada Allowing 49K EVs in Exchange for Reduced Tariffs

CTV Power Play, January 16, 2026

Featuring Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt: "This was a huge move on the geopolitical chessboard by Prime Minister Carney. A bold one, a daring one, and not just the deal on EVs and tariffs, but the announcement of this new strategic partnership with China, which obviously will bring with it some economic opportunities, especially in the energy sector as well as agriculture. 

"But it also carries with it risks, risks that are inherent in engaging with China, but also risks in our discussions with the US. We will see where that pays off, but I think it's a reflection of just the kind of geopolitical turmoil that we're living through that Prime Minister Carney essentially made an assessment that the risk is worth taking for now, that it can be managed. We will see whether that gamble pays off."

Carney's Canada-China deals are the product of months of diplomatic hustle

The Canadian Press, January 16, 2026

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt:The agreements Prime Minister Mark Carney brokered over the two days of his Beijing visit are the result of months of diplomatic work and cultural knowledge, international relations experts say.

The world as it is

Canada's National Observer, January 16, 2026

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President, Research & Strategy, APF Canada

Excerpt: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trip to China has illuminated the extraordinary shift in geopolitics Canada is adapting to in real time — a shift Carney alluded to in the press conference he gave at the end of his day-long meeting with President Xi Jinping: “We take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.”

“The order that we all were enjoying existed in a large part because of U.S. power being deployed to underwrite it,” said Vina Nadjibulla in an interview with Canada’s National Observer. “That is now unravelling. What's coming in its place is unclear. It's being shaped as we speak.”

This was the not-so-subtle subtext of Carney’s China visit. Until now, said Nadjibulla, the benign protection of the United States spared Canada from having to pursue the kind of realpolitik that neighbours of powerful dictatorships have had to pursue. “We never really had the imperative to genuinely work with countries with whom we have serious disagreements,” she said.