The Takeaway
The recent terror attack in India’s Jammu and Kashmir territory has sharply escalated tensions between India and Pakistan — longstanding rivals with competing territorial claims in one of the world’s most militarized regions. New Delhi alleges the attackers had ties to Pakistan and has taken retaliatory measures that thus far fall short of military action. Islamabad has responded with tit-for-tat steps of its own. As domestic pressure for justice mounts in India, a military response appears increasingly likely. Pakistan has vowed to retaliate, raising fears of a potential full-scale military conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
In Brief
- On April 22, gunmen launched a deadly attack at Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, a popular tourist destination in the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The attackers allegedly targeted non-Muslim men, killing 26 civilians, mostly tourists.
- The Resistance Front, believed to be an offshoot of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), claimed responsibility for the attack but retracted the claim three days later. The LeT — banned by India, Pakistan, Canada, the U.S., and several others — has been considered a proxy for the Pakistani state for operations against India since the mid-1990s.
- In response, India launched several retaliatory measures — suspending a bilateral water-sharing agreement, cancelling Pakistani visas, and expelling diplomats — and Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to punish terrorists and their backers. Pakistan, which described the incident as a “false flag operation,” called for a neutral investigation and retaliated with similar measures, such as closing its airspace to Indian-operated flights and suspending trade with India.
- While U.S. President Donald Trump, like several other world leaders, condemned the terror incident, he has signalled a hands-off approach, stating that India and Pakistan will “figure it out.”
- Beijing, which maintains close ties with Islamabad, has urged de-escalation while also supporting Pakistan’s call for an independent investigation into the attacks.
- On April 30, Pakistan claimed it had “credible intelligence” that a military strike by India was likely in the next 24 to 36 hours.
Implications
India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty – an agreement that remained intact through three wars between the two countries — marks an unprecedented development. Brokered by the World Bank in 1960, the treaty allocates water from the Indus River and its tributaries between the upper riparian country, India, and the lower riparian, Pakistan. These rivers support nearly 80 per cent of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Suspending the treaty introduces new uncertainty into an already fragile relationship. Although it may be difficult for India to restrict or divert water flows immediately, the country’s minister for water resources has threatened to ensure that “not even a drop of water” reaches Pakistan. Islamabad has warned that such a move would be considered an “act of war.”
As Modi gave the Indian Armed Forces “full freedom” to respond, a military response seems imminent. New Delhi and Islamabad previously came close to war in 2019 following a suicide bombing in Jammu and Kashmir linked to a Pakistan-based terror group. The attack killed 40 Indian soldiers. At the time, India retaliated with limited cross-border airstrikes against terrorist training camps, which led to a dogfight between the two countries’ air forces but did not prompt a military escalation. Now, fears of a spiralling conflict loom large. In a recent interview with Sky News, Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif has threatened of an “all-out war” if provoked.
While New Delhi has superior conventional military strength over Islamabad, Pakistan’s close ties with India’s other rival, China — with which it shares a 3,488-kilometre disputed border — and Asif’s claim that Islamabad may resort to nuclear weapons if “there is a direct threat” to its existence, are both clear reasons for restraint.
Meanwhile, Pakistan has suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement, which includes a commitment to resolve disputes peacefully through bilateral channels and governs the ceasefire along the Line of Control — the de facto border in the Himalayan region. Such a move threatens to dismantle a key diplomatic safeguard against conflict escalation.
What’s Next
1. Disruption of economic prospects and a fragile peace in Kashmir
While the Modi government has claimed significant progress in Kashmir following the revocation of its special status in 2019 — for example a reduction of terrorism, an increase in tourism and investment, and relative calm — the Pahalgam attack has exposed lingering vulnerabilities, including India’s security lapses. Plummeting tourist numbers and a drop in investment sentiment appear likely, especially if security risks escalate or if Kashmir's internal discontent is reignited.
Moreover, with daily ceasefire violations along the Line of Control and aggressive rhetoric from both sides, the threats of military escalation remain serious. In addition to its other measures, India has conducted naval exercises and missile tests, and Pakistan has conducted live-fire drills, both of which heighten the risk of miscalculation between two nuclear-armed neighbours.
2. Global response amid escalating risks
While the U.S., China, and other countries promptly issued statements condemning the terror incident, Canada was slower to respond, with Prime Minster Mark Carney — then in the middle of an election campaign — the final G7 leader to issue a statement. Canada’s large Indian and Pakistani diasporas — almost four million people combined — have often mobilized around political developments related to the Kashmir conflict. The Indo-Canadian communities in the Greater Toronto Area, Vancouver, and Montreal, held candlelight vigils in response to the recent attack.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has spoken to both sides separately to try to de-escalate the situation. While Washington has called for a “responsible solution,” it finds itself in a tricky regional balancing act: on one hand, its strategic partnership with New Delhi has deepened in recent years, but on the other hand, it has also approved a US$397-million package to support Pakistan’s F-16 fighter aircraft fleet. Other close partners of both sides, such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, have offered to mediate to ease tensions. China, a major regional actor, has also urged restraint.
• Edited by Erin Williams, Senior Program Manager.
