Executive Summary
Global supply chains, once celebrated for driving efficiency and growth, are increasingly recognized as a source of strategic vulnerability. Geopolitical shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic, climate-related disasters, and tariff volatility have exposed the potential fragility of cross-border production networks, particularly in critical sectors such as energy, semiconductors, and medical supplies. For Canada, these disruptions have underscored the need to transition from fragmented, reactive responses to supply chain shocks toward a comprehensive strategy for supply chain resilience.
Canada has in recent years made progress in its development of a national supply chain strategy, through initiatives such as the National Supply Chain Office, the Critical Minerals Strategy, and new investment screening rules. However, these efforts remain siloed. Current policies emphasize product-specific chokepoints (e.g. transport, health products, minerals) but lack an integration system across sectors, foresight in anticipating emerging risks, and strong international partnerships. Without a coherent framework, Canada remains ill-prepared to manage external shocks and coercive pressures.
Supply Chain Early Warning Systems (EWS) represent a promising tool to shift governance from crisis management to proactive resilience. By combining advanced data collection, predictive analytics, and interagency co-ordination, EWS can identify vulnerabilities in real time, trigger preventive action, and mitigate systemic risks before they escalate.
A partnership with the Republic of Korea (or Korea for short) may help Canada to develop an EWS. Korea has emerged as a global leader in this domain, developing a whole-of-government EWS framework that integrates ministry-level monitoring, artificial intelligence-enabled (AI) risk analysis, public-private collaboration, and international engagement. The Canada-Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (2022) and Canada's Indo-Pacific Strategy both highlight supply chain resilience as a priority. Partnering with Korea offers Canada not only a blueprint for designing its own EWS but also a platform for strengthening bilateral and regional resilience in critical sectors such as critical minerals, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing. By combining Canada's resource-based strongpoints with Korea's technology-driven manufacturing networks, both countries can generate complementary capabilities, enhance competitiveness, and reinforce their roles as trusted Indo-Pacific partners.
This paper recommends a phased approach to Canada-Korea supply chain co-operation in the development of an EWS:
- 1. Structured Dialogue and Shared Diagnostic
- a. Establish a bilateral platform to map goals, vulnerabilities, and critical nodes in key sectors.
- b. Launch best-practice exchanges on early warning systems, logistics digitalization, and chokepoint mitigation.
- 2. Pilot Early Warning Systems
- a. Implement joint pilot projects in strategic industries.
- b. Align methodologies, share data, and develop joint monitoring tools.
- 3. Institutionalize Co-operation
- a. Elevate supply chain resilience as a core element of summit diplomacy.
- b. Create a Track 1.5 dialogue involving officials, experts, and practitioners to generate evidence-based recommendations and build trust.
- 4. Broaden to Plurilateral Partnerships
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a. Extend bilateral co-operation to like-minded partners.
b. Position Canada and Korea as co-leaders in shaping international standards, interoperability protocols, and joint investment mechanisms.
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Developing a Canadian EWS in partnership with Korea offers a pragmatic and forward-looking path to strengthen resilience, enhance competitiveness, and secure Canada's role as a trusted Indo-Pacific partner. By moving from diagnostic rigour to multilateral leadership, Canada and Korea can together help set the rules and standards for transparent, sustainable, and resilient global supply chains in an era of geopolitical volatility.
